Rich Rodriguez is already betting on his 2026 West Virginia team to outplay the expectations coming from outside the building, and ESPN’s computers are not exactly buying in.
The latest Football Power Index update laid out projections for every game on the Mountaineers’ schedule, and the numbers paint a rough path. West Virginia is favored in only a handful of spots, and the model has the season landing at 3-9 overall and 1-8 in league play.
Here’s how ESPN’s matchup predictor sees the slate:
vs. Coastal Carolina - 85.8%
vs. UT Martin - 96.3%
vs. Virginia (in Charlotte) - 27.2%
vs. Oklahoma State - 49.1%
at Iowa State - 45.5%
vs.
Arizona - 40.3%
vs.
Cincinnati - 39.9%
at TCU - 24.4%
at Texas Tech - 6.3%
vs.
Kansas - 50.4%
vs.
Houston - 38.1%
at Utah - 18.7%
Last summer, the same kind of projection had WVU at 6-6 for 2025, and it missed on the Ohio and Utah games while correctly calling the other 10. So the computers have had some success, even if they didn’t get everything right.
There are a few games on this schedule that look like toss-ups, starting with Oklahoma State. That one makes sense as a coin flip, but the Mountaineers get the Cowboys at home and early in the year, which should give WVU a real shot to be the slight favorite.
Iowa State is another spot where the projection feels shaky. Ames is never a comfortable trip, but this is also a year where the Cyclones are in rebuild mode under Jimmy Rogers. That roster, according to the source, isn’t ready to compete in the league yet, and the feeling is that the numbers could swing more toward West Virginia as game week gets closer.
Cincinnati is in a similar bucket. The Bearcats bring back a veteran offensive line, which likely explains some of the optimism around them, but the rest of the roster doesn’t inspire the same confidence.
West Virginia has also had the upper hand in the series, with Cincinnati sitting at 2-9-1 in Morgantown. The belief here is that the Bearcats won’t have enough offense to match up with Mike Hawkins Jr., Cam Cook, and company.
Virginia is another game where West Virginia may not be the favorite, but the matchup is far from hopeless. The Cavaliers are described as experienced and solid, yet the Mountaineers could have the edge if the game turns into a back-and-forth battle.
That would be especially true if Mike Hawkins Jr. outplays Beau Pribula or Eli Holstein. The setting should help too, with a large WVU crowd expected to make Charlotte feel more like a Mountaineer-friendly environment.
Arizona brings a different kind of challenge. The Wildcats can throw it around with Noah Fifita, and that passing attack could give West Virginia problems.
But the game comes early in the season and is at home, which matters. The travel is no small thing for a Pacific Standard Time Zone team coming east, and if Zac Alley can get pressure on Fifita and force Arizona into a more balanced approach, the matchup could swing back toward the Mountaineers.
That would be even more true if WVU can slow the run game and make the Wildcats one-dimensional.
Texas Tech stands out as the one game on the schedule that looks like a clear loss, unless injuries hit the Red Raiders hard. Beyond that, the rest of the schedule seems to leave room for West Virginia to surprise the computers if the roster comes together the way Rodriguez believes it can.
In Other News...
BYU Just Landed In The Middle Of A Wild Big 12 Debate
A recent On3 Coaches Poll offered a pretty clear snapshot of how wide open the Big 12 feels heading into the season, and BYU came out as the choice most coaches trusted to win the conference. That alone says plenty about the leagues balance of power, especially with Texas Tech, Utah, Houston, Arizona and Iowa State also drawing support in a vote that seemed to spread confidence around rather than concentrate it.
For West Virginia fans, the broader takeaway is familiar: there is no consensus answer in this league, only a cluster of teams with enough talent and intrigue to keep the conversation moving. The poll underscored just how unpredictable the Big 12 can be from year to year, with coaches clearly seeing a conference where the title race could tilt in several directions before it ever reaches the finish line. [Read more 🡒]
Rich Rod Just Said What Frustrated WVU Fans Have Wanted Heard
West Virginias place in the Big 12 has long come with a built-in headache: the travel, the geography and the sense that the Mountaineers are often fighting uphill just to keep old regional ties alive. At Big 12 Media Day, Rich Rodriguez leaned into that frustration and put a cleaner frame around what many WVU fans have been saying for years, pushing for a future realignment built around regional groupings that would make the league feel a little more like home.
Rodriguez also floated a broader fix for the sports money problem, arguing that Power Four schools should pool TV revenue into one large package and spread it more evenly. The idea fits the same theme as the regional reset, but it is still more vision than reality, with the current conference and media setup unlikely to change quickly and the bigger college football revenue model still very much an open question. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Is Making One Last Exception For Pat Whites No. 5
West Virginia is planning a long-awaited salute to Pat Whites No. 5, with a ceremony set for Sept. 5, 2026, during the season opener against Coastal Carolina. The tribute will come as part of a White Out, giving the program a fitting stage to recognize one of its most iconic quarterbacks while finally moving toward an official jersey retirement.
The timing, though, comes with one last wrinkle before the number is taken out of circulation. Head coach Rich Rodriguez announced the plan, and the university has opted to delay the formal retirement for another season, leaving one more chapter to play out before No. 5 is permanently set aside. [Read more 🡒]