ESPN’s latest Football Power Index has laid out a rough road for West Virginia in 2026, and the overall picture is a middle-of-the-pack season with a few uphill battles baked in.
The model pegs the Mountaineers for a 5.4-6.6 finish. WVU sits No. 66 in the FPI, with a 46.5-percent chance to reach six wins, a 0.7-percent shot at the Big 12 title, a 1.4-percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 0.0-percent chance of getting to the National Championship Game.
ESPN describes the system this way: "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
West Virginia opens with a heavy favorite in the model’s eyes on September 5 against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers are given an 85.8-percent chance to win that one, while the Chanticleers come in at No. 117 in the FPI.
The two programs have met only once before, in 2010, when WVU rolled 31-0 behind Geno Smith, Noel Devine and Tavon Austin. Smith threw two touchdowns, Devine ran for 111 yards and a score, and Austin topped the team with 90 receiving yards.
The first real test on the slate comes September 19 in Charlotte against Virginia, where West Virginia is projected for a 27.2-percent chance to win. The Cavaliers are ranked No.
- The schools have not played since a bowl game in 2002, when Virginia won 48-22, and before that the last meeting came in 1985.
The series was once a regular one, with UVA holding a 12-10-1 edge. Virginia has taken the last three, while WVU won the six before that.
October brings a home date with Cincinnati on the 17th, and ESPN gives the Mountaineers a 39.9-percent chance there. The Bearcats sit at No. 46 in the FPI.
WVU has controlled this matchup overall, owning an 18-3-1 record in 22 meetings and winning the last four. The most recent clash came in 2024, when West Virginia used two defensive touchdowns to pull out a 31-24 win.
The schedule tightens again a week later with a trip to TCU on October 24. The Mountaineers are only given a 24.4-percent chance in Fort Worth, with the Horned Frogs ranked No.
- TCU had the better of the early Big 12 years under Dana Holgorsen, winning four of the first six meetings, including a couple of ranked showdowns.
WVU answered by taking five of six after that, but last year’s 23-17 loss in Morgantown was a tough one.
November 7 at Texas Tech looks like the steepest climb on the slate. ESPN gives WVU just a 6.3-percent chance to win, while the Red Raiders are slotted No. 10 in the FPI.
The teams have met 15 times, with Texas Tech holding an 8-7 lead. West Virginia won six of the first eight, but has only one win in the last seven meetings.
The last two have been especially brutal, with Tech outscoring the Mountaineers 101-15.
Kansas comes to Morgantown on November 14, and that one is close to a coin flip. WVU is projected at 50.4 percent, while the Jayhawks are No.
- The Mountaineers lead the series 11-3 in 14 games, including wins in 10 of the first 11.
Kansas, though, has taken two of the last three, and last season’s meeting ended in a 41-10 Kansas win.
The regular season closes November 27 at Utah, where the Mountaineers are given an 18.7-percent chance. The Utes check in at No.
- West Virginia has never beaten Utah, dropping two bowl games and its only Big 12 meeting with the Utes.
The teams first met in the Liberty Bowl in 1964, then again in 2017, when half of WVU’s team sat out. Their first regular-season meeting came last year, and Utah handled the Mountaineers 48-14.
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Cam Vaughns stay in Miami came to a sudden end this week, with Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal announcing the wide receiver had been dismissed from the program. Vaughn had transferred from West Virginia earlier in the year, giving the move the feel of a fresh start after leaving Morgantown for a new opportunity.
Instead, the former Mountaineer never got into a regular-season game for Miami before the plug was pulled. Cristobal did not offer a reason for the decision, leaving the situation hanging as another offseason transfer storyline that turned quickly and quietly for a player West Virginia fans had been watching from afar. [Read more 🡒]
WVU's New-Look Offensive Line Is Setting A Different Tone Early
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The encouraging part for WVU is that the early signs have not been limited to what the staff sees from the sideline. Players families have taken notice of the tone the new line is setting, which speaks to how quickly the groups identity is coming into focus. The bigger question is whether that early promise can hold as the competition ramps up, but for now the Mountaineers have reason to believe the offensive line is becoming a strength rather than a question mark. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Has One Defensive Battle Fans Need To Watch Closely
The nickel or SAM spot in Zac Alleys defense is shaping up as one of the more interesting position battles on West Virginias roster, and it is easy to see why. It is a role that asks for a little bit of everything, since the player lining up there has to handle coverage responsibilities, support the run and still fit the scheme cleanly as the season approaches. Geimere Latimer and Maliek Hawkins sit at the front of that conversation, bringing the most experience and the best case to be the immediate answer.
Behind them, the picture gets more developmental, with Emory Snyder, Miles Khatri and Jayden Ballard all part of the mix as the staff sorts through long-term fit and upside. Each brings a different body type and skill set, which makes the competition worth watching through camp because the position is less about one obvious winner than finding the right blend of physicality and versatility. For a defense trying to settle its pieces early, this could end up being one of the quieter but most important decisions on the roster. [Read more 🡒]