ESPN’s College Football Power Index spent another week stirring the pot after Week 3, and the latest shakeups hit both ends of the power-conference spectrum. Some teams got a real bump from their results. Others slid fast, and a few are stuck in places that make the road ahead look ugly.
Northwestern came away with the biggest upward jolt among the teams mentioned here. A 41-7 thumping of Colorado pushed the Wildcats up to ninth in the Big Ten, and ESPN’s FPI now gives them a 6.2% chance to reach the College Football Playoff after a 2-0 start. The more realistic milestone is six wins, where Northwestern sits at 82.2%.
West Virginia also earned a meaningful climb after moving to 3-0 with a win over a previously ranked Virginia team. That result boosts the Mountaineers into a more respectable spot in the Big 12 portion of the FPI, and the model now sees WVU with an 81.1% chance to get to six or more wins. The Playoff number is there too, even if it’s a long shot: 4%.
Texas A&M got a similar surge after beating Northwestern 31-21. That victory sends the Aggies up 15 spots, though they still sit 14th in the SEC. ESPN’s math gives them a 52.6% chance of navigating the league well enough to reach six wins, along with a 3.2% shot at the College Football Playoff.
Colorado, meanwhile, took one of the harshest drops. The 41-7 loss to Northwestern leaves Coach Prime’s team at 2-1 and near the bottom of the Big 12 in FPI terms. The model basically takes Colorado out of the conference and Playoff conversation, with just a 22.8% chance of reaching six wins.
Stanford is in an even rougher spot. The Cardinal sit at 102nd, the lowest ranking among power-conference teams, behind Rutgers and Boston College.
A 35-7 loss to Duke dropped Stanford to 1-2, and FPI gives the Cardinal only a 3.8% chance to get to six wins. In a conference with eight teams outside the top 50, Stanford looks firmly pinned to the bottom.
Cincinnati’s case is the strangest one of the bunch. The Bearcats improved to 3-0 with a 35-31 comeback over Miami of Ohio, after trailing 28-7 at halftime.
Even so, FPI pushed them down toward the lower end of the Big 12 middle pack. That leaves Cincinnati with a 74% chance of reaching six wins, which is a curious number considering they’re already halfway there.
In Other News...
West Virginias 3-0 Start Just Raised The Stakes Against Oklahoma State
West Virginias perfect start kept rolling with a win over Virginia, and the payoff goes beyond another mark in the loss column. At 3-0, the Mountaineers have put themselves in a far better place for bowl eligibility, and the early-season momentum has already started to shift the conversation around where this team might wind up in December.
Various outlets have already started slotting West Virginia into different bowl projections, and the quality of those possible destinations has improved since the Virginia win. The next test against Oklahoma State now feels especially important, because another strong result would only sharpen the Mountaineers standing and make the rest of their season look a lot different than it did a few weeks ago. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Snap Counts Reveal Early Trust Battles Fans Should Watch
West Virginias first game against a Power Four opponent offered an early look at how the coaching staff is sorting out its trust tree, and the snap counts made the picture a little clearer. On offense, the wide receiver rotation showed which players were leaned on most, while the interior line work suggested the staff is still testing how it wants to manage the front. On defense, the distribution among defensive backs also pointed to a group that is being handled with some care as the season gets into its tougher stretch.
For fans, the bigger takeaway is less about the numbers themselves and more about what they can signal next. Coaching staffs tend to settle into patterns quickly, especially after a matchup like this, and those early usage splits can tell you who is earning steady work and who may be headed for a bigger role as the lineup evolves. If the rotations shift in the coming weeks, this opener may end up looking like the first real clue to how West Virginia wants to build around its most trusted pieces. [Read more 🡒]
WVU's First Road Test Just Got More Interesting Against Iowa State
West Virginias first road test of the season now has a little more clarity, with the Big 12 setting the Mountaineers game at Iowa State for noon Eastern and placing it on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max. Its the kind of update that turns a circled date on the calendar into a real checkpoint for a team still trying to settle into the rhythm of the year, especially with a league trip that can tell you plenty about where a roster stands.
Iowa State brings its own intrigue into the matchup under new coach Jimmy Rogers, as the Cyclones work through a rebuild while still carrying the usual Big 12 familiarity on the schedule. The series history adds another layer, because these games have tended to offer West Virginia a useful measuring stick, and this one lands in the middle of a stretch that should help define both teams early direction. [Read more 🡒]