Texas Tech’s path back to the College Football Playoff got a lot tighter on Saturday.
The Red Raiders went into Cincinnati as 10.5-point favorites, but left with their first loss of the season after a 37-24 defeat to the 4-2 Bearcats. Texas Tech couldn’t get its offense moving for most of the afternoon, didn’t find the end zone until the third quarter, and spent the rest of the day settling for field goals.
The problems weren’t limited to one side of the ball. Texas Tech’s defense allowed 24 first-half points, putting the Red Raiders in a 24-6 hole by halftime.
Cincinnati’s defense also made life miserable for Will Hammond and company, holding Tech to 3-of-15 on third down. Penalties only made the situation worse, with the Red Raiders tagged for 13 flags and 85 yards.
Losing for the first time is one thing. Dropping that first game to an unranked opponent is another, and it’s the kind of result that can sting when the CFP committee starts comparing resumes. Texas Tech still has a workable finish in front of it, but the margin for error is suddenly much smaller.
Here’s what the rest of the schedule looks like for Texas Tech:
Oct. 31 vs. No.
25 Arizona
Nov. 7 vs.
WVU
Nov. 21 at Baylor
Nov. 26 vs. TCU
For now, the only ranked opponent left is No. 25 Arizona, who comes to Lubbock next week. The slate also includes two Big 12 teams currently below .500 in WVU and TCU, which gives Texas Tech a chance to steady itself after the Cincinnati loss.
The toughest matchup outside of Arizona may be Oklahoma State, which is 4-2 and already owns a signature upset over Oregon earlier this season.
If the Red Raiders run the table, they should still be in good shape for a CFP berth. There’s also a path to the Big 12 title game, depending on how things shake out for BYU and Utah ahead of them. But if Texas Tech drops another game, especially against an unranked opponent, the situation gets much more complicated.
Utah and BYU are both expected to keep rolling, and BYU already has that signature win over Notre Dame. With so many teams crowded into the Big Ten and SEC picture, the committee may not have much room once the 12-team field starts filling out. At this point, it’s far from clear that the CFP would take a two-loss Texas Tech if that meant sending three Big 12 teams.
DraftKings currently lists Texas Tech at +290 to make the CFP, a shade worse than Florida at +280.
In Other News...
Sonny Dykes Had A Frustrated Reaction To West Virginia's Win
West Virginias 24-2 win over TCU had the kind of closing sequence that can tilt a game from competitive to lopsided in a hurry. After both teams spent much of the afternoon fighting through stalled possessions, David Afoghos late strip sack and Ben Cutters recovery gave the Mountaineers the kind of defensive break that can put a game out of reach and leave the opponent looking back at all the missed chances.
For Sonny Dykes, the frustration showed up quickly afterward. The TCU coach pointed to the Horned Frogs inability to finish drives, along with turnovers, missed field goals and other failed critical plays, as the difference in a game where his team managed to outgain West Virginia in several statistical categories. From West Virginias perspective, it was another reminder that style points do not matter much when the defense keeps producing the one play that ends the night. [Read more 🡒]
Ross Hodge Made Clear What WVU Still Must Fix Fast
West Virginias 103-66 exhibition win over Glenville State offered a cleaner look at where the Mountaineers are settling in under Ross Hodge, and where the work still needs to continue before the games count. The result moved WVU to 1-1 in preseason play, and Hodge used the postgame to frame the night as more than just a tune-up, touching on the significance of the outing and the way his team handled itself on both ends.
There was also a little bit of the usual October injury watch to sort through, along with some encouraging signs from practice that Hodge has seen from one players rebounding and competitiveness. Even in a lopsided exhibition, those are the kinds of details that matter for a roster trying to sort out its rotation and sharpen its identity before the season gets moving for real. [Read more 🡒]
WVU Defense Reaches A Breaking Point Before Crucial Bye Week
West Virginia has been grinding through eight straight weeks without a break, and the timing of the upcoming bye could hardly be better. Before it gets there, though, the Mountaineers still have one more game to navigate against TCU, with the defense carrying plenty of attention after a stretch that has left Rich Rodriguez wanting a reset far earlier than this point.
Zac Alley has described the units play as inconsistent, and that has made the open date feel less like a luxury than a necessity. The hope now is that the extra time will give West Virginia a chance to regroup, clean up the issues on that side of the ball and head into the final weeks of the regular season with a better answer for the tougher matchups ahead. [Read more 🡒]