The Washington Wizards have already started trimming Deandre Ayton’s role, and the numbers are making the case for going even further.
After trading Jaden Hardy and two second-round draft picks to bring Ayton in during the offseason, Washington expected an elite backup center. Instead, his minutes have kept sliding while the production has gone with them. The Wizards have now lost six straight and eight of their last 10 after opening the year 2-1, and the current setup is not giving them enough.
Ayton is averaging 4.5 points and 4.8 rebounds in 14.1 minutes per game. Washington has been outscored by 41 points in his 183 minutes, and the team has a negative 10.1 net rating with him on the floor.
In nine of the first 13 games, the Wizards have been outscored when he plays. They are 5.5 points per 100 possessions better when he sits.
That’s a rough return for a player who was supposed to stabilize the frontcourt. Ayton has never been a bench guy for long, but he came off the bench to start this season for the first time since 2020.
He looked engaged early, then the impact faded fast. His minutes have dipped, and he has played under 10 minutes in three of the last four games.
The bigger issue for Washington is that its best big-man options both want the same space. Anthony Davis is playing like a superstar, and the Wizards are better when he’s at the five.
Alex Sarr is also a center, and the team wants to keep developing him in that role. Between them, there just isn’t much room left for Ayton.
Washington has been using Davis at the four because he prefers it, but the lineup data points the other way. In the minutes when Davis is on the floor without Sarr or Ayton, the Wizards have a 2.5 net rating. That’s the kind of stretch that suggests more time with Davis as the lone big man could help.
Sarr’s fit is straightforward, too. He’s not a consistent jumper-shooter, but he can finish at the rim and protect the basket. That makes him most effective at center, not drifting around the edges of the offense.
The math of the rotation is tight. There are only 48 center minutes in a game, and Davis is averaging 34.1 minutes while Sarr is at 27.2. Washington has already been leaning into those two more at the five, which is why Ayton’s role has shrunk so much.
The results with Ayton as the lone big man haven’t helped his case either. In 116 minutes in that role, the Wizards have a negative 16.6 net rating. He hasn’t worked next to Davis or Sarr, and he hasn’t worked alone.
Head coach Brian Keefe has already cut him down to under 10 minutes per game, and Washington has four of its five starters playing more than 33 minutes nightly. That leaves room to push more of the current workload toward Sarr and Tre Johnson instead of keeping Ayton in the mix.
If the Wizards are serious about turning this around, the message from the early-season numbers is hard to ignore: Ayton is not helping enough, and the rotation is better without him.
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