Greg McElroy sees Friday night’s Big Ten matchup in Seattle turning into a grind, and he’s siding with the road team.
The Always College Football host picked No. 20 Iowa to edge Washington 17-13, pointing to a Hawkeyes defense that can squeeze the life out of an offense and a Huskies unit that has had trouble keeping its quarterback upright.
The game kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 9, at Husky Stadium on Fox or FS1.
“I'm taking Iowa to win the game 17-13. I'm not convinced that Washington can run or protect.
They also struggle on third down. Iowa's defense punishes all three.”
That’s an upset on paper, especially with the line moving toward Washington after opening at -1.5 and climbing to -3.5.
Iowa comes in at 4-1 and 1-1 in the Big Ten after a 31-14 loss to Ohio State. Washington is 3-2 and 0-2 after back-to-back conference defeats, 27-24 to Minnesota and 25-21 at USC. Both teams are trying to get back on track in the league race, and both arrive with real questions.
For Iowa, the biggest one is at quarterback. Starter Hank Brown left the Ohio State game late in the third quarter with a sprained joint in his right throwing shoulder, and coach Kirk Ferentz called him questionable Tuesday.
“I wouldn't say we're fully back to normal by any means,” Brown said. “But we're making progress a ton.”
Hecklinski stepped in and completed all five of his passes for 67 yards on Iowa’s only touchdown drive. Still, McElroy’s read on the Hawkeyes is simple: the offense wants to lean on the run no matter who is taking snaps.
“Either way, Iowa wants to run the football,” McElroy said.
Kamari Moulton has 311 rushing yards on 50 carries against FBS opponents, but Iowa’s ground game has not exactly been dominant. The Hawkeyes rank 120th nationally in rushing success rate at 36.1%. Washington’s front has been strong against the run, ranking fourth in expected points allowed per rush, and the Huskies are allowing opponents to convert just 32.1% of their third- and fourth-down chances, tied for seventh.
McElroy set 150 rushing yards as the number Iowa needs to hit. “Since 2005, Iowa has only lost 18 times when it runs for 150 or more,” he said.
Washington’s offense has its own issues. Demond Williams Jr. has completed 67.5% of his passes for 1,327 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, but he’s also been sacked 13 times against FBS opponents. The Huskies went 1-for-12 on third down at USC, a glaring problem for an offense already struggling to stay on schedule.
Williams has also been Washington’s most efficient runner, with 223 yards on 32 carries against FBS teams. That sets up a tricky matchup against an Iowa defense that ranks sixth nationally in expected points allowed per rush.
“Their receiver is Dezmen Roebuck. He's the volume target,” McElroy said.
“They also have Chris Lawson. He's kind of the deep shot.”
Lawson leads the Huskies with 253 receiving yards on 15 catches against FBS opponents.
McElroy expects the Hawkeyes to make Washington earn everything through the air, and that’s where the pressure could pile up.
“So Washington will probably have to throw it, and that's when the sacks come,” McElroy said. “If Iowa gets three, four, five sacks, then Washington's probably not going to get to 20 points.”
Washington’s third- and fourth-down rate sits at 32.2%, which ranks 124th nationally.
There’s also a trend McElroy pointed to with Washington coach Jedd Fisch, now in his third season in Seattle. When his teams give up the first score, the numbers have not been kind.
“Jedd Fisch is 8-25 at Arizona and Washington when the other team scores first,” McElroy said. “And Iowa's offense is not really built to chase. So in a game like this, the first touchdown might count for double.”
Iowa’s defense is the backbone of the prediction. The Hawkeyes rank seventh nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency and are allowing just 12.5 points per game, tied for eighth.
That’s the profile McElroy is betting on: a low-possession game, a tough Iowa defense, and just enough offense to steal it on the road.
In Other News...
Washington State Faces A Costly QB Question At Utah State
Washington State heads to Utah State carrying a familiar early-season concern, only this one sits right at the most important spot on the field. The Cougars have already been forced to weigh how much trust to place in Caden Pinnick, while the alternatives bring far less game experience and no easy certainty. For a team still trying to find its footing, the quarterback situation has become one of the defining questions of the week.
The matchup could easily swing on which side handles mistakes better, because both teams enter with turnover issues and each has reason to believe the other can be rattled. Washington State will look to lean on its defense if Utah States offense wobbles, while the Aggies will try to test the Cougars up front and turn any protection problems into takeaways. In a game shaped by caution as much as execution, the offense that protects the ball may be the one that leaves with the better feeling. [Read more 🡒]
Washington State Faces An Early Pressure Game For Its Entire Offense
Washington State heads into its meeting with Utah State trying to steady an offense that never found its footing in a 26-6 loss to Fresno State. First-year coach Kirby Moore is already making changes in an effort to get more out of the group, and the Cougars find themselves in a spot where a sluggish start can quickly turn into a much bigger problem if they do not show something more functional on the field.
Utah State arrives with its own early-season frustrations, but the Aggies are still expected to have the edge in the matchup. Washington State does at least carry a 4-2 advantage in the all-time series, yet this game feels less about history than urgency, with both sides searching for a clean response and the Cougars needing a sharper offensive showing to keep the pressure from building even more. [Read more 🡒]