Stephen A. Smith isn’t shy when it comes to bold predictions, and he’s doubling down ahead of Super Bowl LX. The outspoken analyst made it crystal clear on First Take this week: he doesn’t believe the New England Patriots are walking away with their seventh Lombardi Trophy.
Sitting across from Patriots legend Devin McCourty, Smith didn’t mince words. “Y’all ain’t winning the Super Bowl,” he said. “You ain’t beating Seattle.”
It’s a strong stance, especially considering the Patriots have done just about everything to prove they belong on this stage. They’ve already silenced plenty of doubters this postseason, and now only the Seattle Seahawks stand between them and another banner in Foxborough.
Smith did give credit where it’s due - particularly to New England’s defense, which has been a driving force behind their playoff run. “It’s going to be a competitive Super Bowl, I have no doubt, because the New England Patriots’ defense is real,” he acknowledged. But that’s where the compliments stopped.
His main concern? The Patriots' offense. Smith says he still has “big-time questions” about whether this group can get it done against a Seahawks team that’s been one of the most balanced and physical squads in the league all year.
That’s a curious take, considering the numbers tell a different story. New England’s offense has quietly been one of the most efficient units in the league this season.
They finished top three in both total yards and points per game, and led the NFL in EPA per play and overall success rate. That’s not just good - that’s elite.
This isn’t a team winning games in spite of its offense; it’s a team that’s been thriving because of it.
Still, Smith isn’t buying it. In fact, he went so far as to suggest that the Patriots’ run to the Super Bowl has been powered more by good fortune than good football.
“The reason why you shouldn’t sleep on the New England Patriots is because, clearly, divine intervention is shining down upon them,” he said. “I mean, damn.
How much luck can you get every single week? … But it ends now.”
He wrapped up his take with a flourish, saying he’s “snoring” on the Patriots - “give me a pillow, let me take a nap” - because he’s that confident they’re not hoisting the trophy when it’s all said and done.
Now, whether you agree with Smith or not, there’s no denying this matchup has all the makings of a classic. The Patriots’ defense is as disciplined and physical as any in the league, and their offense - despite the skepticism - has been quietly surgical all season long. Seattle, meanwhile, brings a mix of power, speed, and postseason experience that makes them a legitimate threat on both sides of the ball.
So here we are: one game left, one trophy on the line, and one analyst who’s already called his shot. The Patriots have a chance to prove him wrong - again.
And if they do, it won’t be because of luck. It’ll be because they earned it.