Two hundred eighty-four games down, one left to crown a champion. Super Bowl 2026 is officially set: the AFC champion New England Patriots will square off against the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks. And if the early betting action is any indication, the oddsmakers - and the public - are leaning heavily toward Seattle.
The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites, and that number didn’t hold for long. By Monday morning, the line had ballooned to as high as -5.5 in some spots. That’s a clear signal: bettors are buying into Seattle’s momentum - and they’re not entirely sold on what they’ve seen from Drake Maye and the Patriots offense this postseason.
How We Got Here
Last week, the Patriots were the ones drawing early money. Facing a Broncos team led by a backup quarterback in the AFC Championship, New England opened around a 4.5-point favorite, saw that number rise to -6 midweek, then settle back down to -3.5 by kickoff.
In a game played through a second-half snowstorm, the Patriots escaped with a gritty 10-7 win. It wasn’t pretty, but it was enough.
Over in the NFC, Sam Darnold delivered the performance of his career. The Seahawks needed every bit of it - plus a critical muffed punt by the Rams - to edge out a 31-27 win. It was a narrow cover for Seattle, but it answered some lingering questions about Darnold’s ability to show up when the lights are brightest.
Tracking the Trajectories
Let’s take a step back and look at how these two teams evolved over the course of the season. Based on weekly power ratings, both squads started the year below average:
| Week | Seahawks | Patriots |
|---|
| 1 | -1 | -2 | | 4 | 0 | -1.5 |
| 8 | 4.5 | 2 | | 12 | 5.5 | 4 |
| 17 | 7 | 5 | | 22 | 9 | 6 |
Seattle’s rise was steady and aggressive, especially from Weeks 4 through 8, where they gained at least a full point in rating each week. That coincided with Darnold settling in and the defense finding its identity under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald. Early skepticism about Darnold - especially after a rough stint in Minnesota - faded as the Seahawks started stacking wins and building confidence.
New England’s climb was more cautious. The market initially overvalued them, projecting them as a slightly above-average team despite last season’s struggles and a rookie quarterback in Maye.
Early wins were chalked up to a soft schedule, and it wasn’t until midseason that the Patriots started earning respect. By Week 8, Maye’s flashes of brilliance and a rapidly improving defense led by play-caller Zak Kuhr started changing perceptions.
The biggest gap between the two teams in power ratings during the regular season was 2.5 points. Heading into the Super Bowl, that gap has grown to three. Seattle now sits at a +9 rating, while New England is at +6.5 - a nod to the Seahawks’ offensive growth and the Patriots’ offensive stagnation.
The Matchup: Seahawks vs. Patriots
On a neutral field, the projection here is Seahawks -3. But the matchup itself reveals some deeper concerns - especially for New England’s offense.
Let’s break it down:
- Against the Chargers: The Patriots averaged 6 yards per play but still found themselves in a 9-3 slog until a late touchdown sealed it. Maye fumbled twice and threw a pick. The defense did the heavy lifting.
- Against the Texans: Maye fumbled four times (losing two) and threw another interception. Despite three touchdown drives and a pick-six by the defense, the offense only had one other drive that gained more than 12 yards. The scoreboard looked good, but the tape told a different story.
- AFC Championship vs. Broncos: Played in a snowstorm, the Patriots managed just 67 yards on seven first-half drives.
They opened the second half with two 50+ yard drives - one resulting in a field goal - but couldn’t consistently move the ball. A short-field touchdown set up by a Jarrett Stidham turnover was their lone trip to the end zone.
The common thread? Turnovers, inconsistency, and a heavy reliance on the defense to generate points or set up easy scoring chances.
That formula might work against flawed teams. But against a Seahawks defense that ranks No. 1 in scoring and just shut down a high-powered Rams offense?
That’s a different challenge altogether.
What to Expect
If Darnold plays clean football - as he did against the Rams - and avoids the kinds of mistakes that can swing field position, Seattle is in a strong position. The Patriots defense is elite, no doubt. But it’s hard to see New England putting together three touchdown drives or even a mix of field goals and touchdowns to get past the 20-point mark.
That’s why the early play here is on the Patriots team total under 20.5 points. It’s not a bet against Maye’s talent - the rookie has shown flashes. But against a defense this good, with the offense sputtering the way it has in recent weeks, it’s a tall order.
Could the Patriots still cover? Absolutely.
If the spread climbs into the 6-7 point range, there’s value in backing a defense that’s unlikely to let the game get out of hand. A 20-16 type of final score feels entirely plausible - a close, low-scoring battle where New England stays within the number even if the offense doesn’t light it up.
The Underdog Factor
And then there’s the Super Bowl underdog trend - one of the most consistent angles in recent NFL history. Since the Patriots upset the Rams as 14-point dogs in Super Bowl XXXVI, underdogs of 3.5 points or more are 11-2 against the spread in the big game, with seven outright wins. That includes a stretch from Super Bowls 44 to 52 where underdogs won four straight outright.
So while the early lean is to Seattle winning the game, there’s a case to be made - historically and statistically - for New England keeping it close. Just don’t expect fireworks from the Patriots offense. If they’re going to hoist the Lombardi, it’ll be because the defense once again carried the load.
In a season defined by unpredictable quarterback play, dominant defenses, and the rise of new contenders, it feels fitting that we’re heading into a Super Bowl where the underdog has a puncher’s chance - but only if the defense delivers one more masterpiece.