The Nationals’ first-round choice at 11th overall has drawn most of the buzz, but the real pressure point in this draft may come later. If Washington uses that top pick on a bat, the organization still has to come away with pitching help somewhere down the board - and the second round at 42nd overall, or even the third at 78, looks like a logical place to attack that need.
That’s because the Nats don’t just need arms. They need pitchers who are close enough to the majors to matter soon. That’s the lane for college starters, and it’s the kind of profile Paul Toboni’s old Red Sox group had success developing after the first round with names like Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and now Anthony Eyanson.
One of the cleaner fits is Jack Radel from Notre Dame. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound right-hander is expected to land in the 35-to-45 range, and he’s built like a workhorse. He’s improved in each of his last three seasons, attacks the zone with a five-pitch mix, and leans on a mid-90s fastball that plays better because of elite extension.
Radel looks like the kind of arm Washington could move quickly. He doesn’t have a single secondary pitch that jumps off the page, but he does have variety, and that matters.
He feels like a high-floor starter who could settle in at the back of a rotation and pile up innings. The idea here is straightforward: a guy who can get to the big leagues fast and give you something stable.
He could move through the minors quickly and reach the majors by 2028, with a profile that points to a near plug-and-play No. 4 starter.
Ethan Kleinschmit of Oregon State is a different kind of bet. He’s the lowest-ranked of the three and could still be there in the third round, with MLB Pipeline placing him at 69th and Baseball America at 78th. Even so, he has supporters in the industry, including Lance Brozdowski, who has pointed to the possibility of a velocity jump.
That’s the key question with the lefty. His fastball sits around 92 mph right now, which is a little light in today’s game. But there’s belief that he could settle in around 94 with some professional development, and if that happens, his profile changes in a hurry.
The rest of the package is already pretty polished. Kleinschmit throws a sweeper, slider and changeup that all project as at least above average, and his fastball shape is good enough that a sinker could be in the cards later.
His command is at least average, and he’s put together a strong multi-year run at Oregon State. If Washington believes in the velocity upside, he’s the kind of arm worth taking in the second round.
The dream scenario would be landing Radel in the second and Kleinschmit in the third, a pairing that would give the Nationals both safety and upside. Mason Edwards of USC is expected to go in the first round, and the source material sees Kleinschmit as a similar type of profile, which would make getting him later a real win.
Then there’s Ben Blair of Liberty, who feels like the most polarizing of the three. He’s a firm second-round name, and the appeal starts with the weirdness.
The 6-foot-3 right-hander has a delivery that’s tough to watch, but he still pounds the zone. His release is extremely low, which creates a ton of deception, and his 94 mph fastball plays up because hitters have to deal with such an unusual look.
Blair also mixes in a cutter, a sweeper and a lightly used changeup. The whole package is built on deception, strike-throwing and a delivery that makes life miserable for hitters. That control is no small thing either - he walked just 1.6 batters per nine innings.
The comparisons that come to mind are Joe Ryan and Bryan Woo, which tells you the kind of outcome people are dreaming on. But there’s real relief risk here.
The mechanics are so unconventional that it’s fair to wonder whether he can stay in a rotation. He has been durable in college, but the delivery sure looks like one that belongs in a bullpen.
That’s the tension with Blair. He could be a good reliever, maybe even a very good one, but the source material stops short of calling him a true lights-out closer type.
If you’re spending a second-round pick on a reliever, that’s the level you want. If Washington believes he can start despite the mechanics, then the pick makes a lot of sense because the floor and ceiling both have something to offer.
If not, the fit gets trickier.
Even if the Nationals don’t take a pitcher in the first round, there should still be options when their later picks come around. Radel is the safe bet, Kleinschmit is the upside play if the velocity comes, and Blair is the funky strike-thrower with starter questions and real intrigue.
In Other News...
Nationals Prospect Is Making This Decision Impossible To Ignore
Yohandy Morales has done enough at Triple-A to keep forcing the issue, and the numbers are starting to look like those of a hitter who is no longer just knocking on the door. The Nationals prospect is batting .303 with 21 home runs and a .930 OPS, production that stands out even with the usual caveats about contact rate and a ground-ball profile that still need watching.
What has made the conversation harder to ignore is that Morales has also shown signs of tightening up the parts of his game that had been holding him back. His recent strikeout rate has improved, his ball flight has trended in a better direction, and with his Rule 5 eligibility coming this offseason, Washington may soon have to decide how much longer it can keep waiting before making room for him. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Make Another Bullpen Move Fans Saw Coming
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Cosgrove is a recent pickup from the Astros and has barely had time to settle in with the organization, making just one appearance for Triple-A Rochester since arriving. With the roster picture changing quickly, Washington is giving itself another look at a pitcher it brought in to provide depth and flexibility as the bullpen keeps evolving. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Made A Pitching Move That Could Reshape Their Depth Chart
The Nationals pitching pipeline took another turn this week, with the organization making a move that could ripple through the depth chart as the big league club keeps sorting out its relief picture. It comes against the backdrop of a busy minor league slate, where Rochester dropped a tight 8-7 game at Worcester, Harrisburg kept rolling with an 8-3 win over Erie, and Fredericksburg and the FCL Nationals also turned in wins that offered a snapshot of how much arms and bats are being tested across the system.
For Washington, the larger question is less about one box score than about how the club balances immediate needs with long-term depth. The minor league results show a system with some momentum in spots and some frustration in others, but the pitching shuffle is the part that matters most at the top level. However the next round of decisions plays out, it figures to say plenty about which arms the Nationals trust to help now and which ones they want to keep close for later. [Read more 🡒]