The Washington Nationals have already spent time on the bigger names in free agency this offseason, but there’s another lane worth exploring: pitchers who don’t carry the same buzz yet still offer real upside. David Peterson, Kris Bubic and Kyle Hart all come with warts. They also come with the kind of ceiling that can make a modest deal look smart in a hurry.
Peterson feels like the safest place to start. The left-hander spent parts of seven seasons with the Mets before being dealt to the Cubs in June, and his path since 2022 has been a study in steady production with some bumps along the way. Even with the uneven stretches, he has topped 105 innings every year since then and produced a WAR of at least 1 each season.
The trade to Chicago changed his year in a hurry. After a rough opening to 2026, Peterson settled in with the Cubs and finished with a 3.70 ERA.
He was also at his best after the All-Star break, when he put up a 2.73 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 66 innings. At 31, he’s not flashy, but he has a profile that plays: two low-90s fastballs, both used more than half the time, with elite extension helping the velocity play up.
His slider, changeup and curveball round out a respectable mix, and his ground-ball tendencies keep him dependent on batted-ball luck to some degree. Even so, his FIP has generally lived in the mid-to-high 3s over the last five years.
A deal for Peterson would cost more than the kinds of free agents the Nationals have typically signed recently, though still less than the top shelf names in this market. Something around 3-years $33 million should be enough. He’s also the kind of arm that can help a staff in the postseason when he’s right, though his value does lean on having good defense behind him.
Bubic brings a very different kind of appeal. The 29-year-old lefty has a much higher ceiling than Peterson, but the injury history is impossible to ignore.
That risk is exactly what could make him interesting for Washington. If the results hold, he can profile as a middle-of-the-rotation starter without being paid like one.
Across his last 217.2 innings, Bubic has logged a 2.98 ERA, a 2.91 FIP and 227 strikeouts. The catch is that all of that work has come over a limited stretch since 2023.
This year, forearm and shoulder issues interrupted his season, which is the sort of detail that can send teams running. Still, he returned late in the year and even pitched in the playoffs for the Dodgers.
When he was relatively healthy in 2025, Bubic had a 2.55 ERA in 116.1 innings and earned an All-Star nod. His fastball sits at 92 on average, but the pitch gets elite ride from a lower slot, and that gives it real life.
The changeup is a weapon, and the sweeper and slider give him a full four-pitch mix. Because of the health questions, he’d probably be looking at a one-year deal, perhaps with a club option.
If Paul Toboni wants upside without paying for certainty, Bubic fits that lane. He could even be valuable in relief if that’s the path that keeps him on the field.
That reliever angle matters because the Nationals still need a matchup lefty. Toboni spent plenty of time searching for a left-handed arm who could consistently handle left-handed hitters, and he never really found it.
The market does offer options, though. Alex Vesia and Adrian Morejon are at the top, while JoJo Romero, Brock Burke, Sean Newcomb, Gregory Soto and others sit in the next group.
Kyle Hart is the deeper cut, but one worth watching.
Hart’s name doesn’t jump off the page. The Padres’ lefty posted a 4.92 ERA this year, and his career ERA sits at 6.25.
On the surface, that doesn’t scream solution. But the underlying numbers tell a better story.
He posted a 3.63 FIP and xERA, limited hard contact and kept the ball on the ground. Once he moved into a full-time bullpen role, his velocity jumped by more than 2 MPH, and that helped turn him into a more interesting arm.
The splitter he added was especially sharp. Batters hit just .163 against it, and the pitch generated a 39.4% whiff rate.
That gave him a real weapon against right-handers, while his sweeper stayed effective against lefties. The results still haven’t matched the stuff, which helps explain why San Diego might decline his $2.5 million club option.
He’s out of minor league options and was left off the playoff roster, but there’s still a case for a late-career breakout as he heads into his age-34 season. He would also come cheaply and could outproduce better-known names like JoJo Romero or Brock Burke.
None of Peterson, Bubic or Hart is a clean bet. That’s the point.
They’re the kind of pitchers who stay under the radar because there’s something to worry about with each one. But each also has the ability to outperform a modest contract by a wide margin, and that’s the kind of swing the Nationals could make.
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