The Washington Nationals are heading into a winter that should tell everyone exactly how serious this rebuild really is.
After Paul Toboni and his front office spent the 2026 campaign evaluating players and prospects across the organization, the next step is much bigger: actually improving the major league roster. That means adding real help, not just filling innings, and the pitching staff sits near the center of that discussion.
Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden sees the rotation as the place where Washington can make the biggest leap. He pointed to Cade Cavalli as the anchor, with Andrew Alvarez and Connelly Early in position to hold down spots behind him.
"The other area needing improvement is the rotation, but they have a rotation anchor in Cade Cavalli, who they were able to sign to a long-term contract. Andrew Alvarez and Connelly Early should be solid starters behind Cavalli, but they need to add two more quality starters this offseason if they want to be contenders rather than pretenders," he wrote for The Athletic (subscription required).
That’s the heart of the issue for Washington. Cavalli’s 2026 season made him look like a bona fide ace.
Alvarez has already shown he can get big-league outs and projects as a dependable back-end starter. Early, if healthy, has flashed high-end starter ability in his short career.
But that still leaves the Nationals needing two more quality arms if they want the rotation to be good enough to carry real momentum forward.
Bowden’s read suggests those upgrades need to come from outside the organization. Still, Washington does have some internal names who could push into the mix, including left-hander DJ Herz, veteran right-hander Jake Irvin and multi-inning relievers Will Dion, Brad Lord and Riley Cornelio, all of whom could compete for a starting job.
That leaves Toboni and the rest of the decision-makers with a meaningful choice this winter. Last offseason, they took the stopgap route by signing Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell in free agency. That approach did not work out, and the fallout from those moves could shape how aggressive Washington is this time around.
There are arms available on the market, including some high-end starters, but landing them will cost real money. Whether the Nationals are ready to spend for that kind of upgrade is still unclear. If they do, the rotation could be the piece that moves them from a team trying to build something to one that starts looking like a threat.
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Nationals Face A Bigger Question Than Just Spending More
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Washington has already shown it can hang with Milwaukee, which makes the broader lesson from this kind of model even more interesting. The Brewers approach, as discussed in analysis from Wilytics, points to offense that keeps improving and a run-scoring profile supported by complementary pieces rather than one expensive solution. For the Nationals, the bigger issue is whether they can find that same kind of balance, the sort that turns a decent payroll into a playoff-caliber roster. [Read more 🡒]