Riley Cornelio may not have the cleanest stat line on the Washington Nationals’ pitching staff, but the stuff is loud enough to make you stop and pay attention.
That’s the big reason he stands out as a breakout candidate for 2027. Cornelio has already had multiple chances this season, logging 27.2 innings over 14 outings.
He first got the call in late April, then resurfaced for longer stretches in July and again now in September. Early on, he looked overmatched at times.
Lately, that has started to change.
The pitch that drives everything for Cornelio is the slider. It’s a true bullet slider, the kind that shows fastball out of the hand before disappearing late.
When it’s working, hitters are in trouble. That showed up again in his strong opener outing yesterday.
The numbers behind that slider are outrageous. It has produced a 53.2% whiff rate, which ranks fourth among pitches thrown at least 200 times in baseball. Only Mason Miller’s slider, Adrian Morejon’s changeup and Erik Miller’s slider have generated more empty swings.
That’s the weapon. The problem, for most of the season, has been everything around it.
Cornelio’s 17.7% walk rate has helped drag his ERA to 4.88, even with a premium bat-misser in the mix. He’s also given up his share of hard contact.
Still, there’s reason to think the command numbers may not tell the whole story. Since being recalled in early September, Cornelio has looked sharper.
In a three-outing sample this month, he has walked only two batters in 7.2 innings. His career track record points in a better direction too, with walk rates generally sitting in the 10 to 11% range.
One recent change could be helping that along: a cutter. Cornelio has long been more of a two-pitch arm, leaning on a fastball and that excellent slider.
But midway through this season, he added the cutter, and in September he has leaned into it much more aggressively. This year he has thrown it 8.5% of the time, but that number jumped to 23.9% this month.
The pitch fits neatly between his other two offerings. The cutter sits around 90 MPH, right in the middle of his 85 MPH slider and his 96-97 MPH fastball, both in speed and movement. That extra shape gives hitters one more decision to wrestle with, and that matters a lot when the slider is already a chase pitch.
At this point, Cornelio looks capable of working as a one-inning reliever or in a multi-inning role. He has also looked comfortable as a 2 to 3 inning opener, which could be a useful landing spot. Even so, with a 35.5% whiff rate this season, there’s a strong case to see what he can do in late innings next year.
The swing-and-miss ability is the headline here. Over his last 300 pitches, Cornelio has racked up 56 whiffs, one of the best totals in baseball. Cade Cavalli is right behind him with 55.
Cornelio is still a work in progress, though. The command has to improve if he’s going to matter in 2027.
Allowing 22 walks in 27.2 innings just won’t cut it. But his history suggests that the control issues may not be permanent, and he has already shown more poise since his first call-up.
When Cornelio first arrived, the moment seemed to speed up on him. His mound presence looked shaky at times.
That kind of thing can’t happen if he’s going to be trusted in higher-leverage spots. To his credit, he has settled in and now looks much more confident.
The surface numbers still don’t scream breakout. The recent run does. In his last seven outings, Cornelio has posted a 2.77 ERA, and with the slider, the cutter and the hard fastball all in the mix, he has the kind of arsenal that can play in the majors.
A lot of the arms Washington has cycled through the bullpen simply haven’t had the necessary talent. Cornelio does.
For him, it comes down to the three C’s: command, confidence and cutter. If those come together, next season could look a lot different.
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