DJ Herz’s Road Back: Why 2026 Is About the Long Game for the Nationals’ Lefty
Heading into 2025, DJ Herz was penciled in as a key piece of the Washington Nationals’ rotation puzzle. And for good reason.
In 2024, he flashed serious upside in his 88 2/3 innings of work, finishing the year with a 4.16 ERA and a 3.71 FIP while punching out more than 10 batters per nine. The strikeout stuff was real, the peripherals were solid, and the underlying numbers suggested a pitcher on the rise.
But then came Spring Training-and things unraveled fast. Herz’s velocity dipped, his command vanished, and before the season could even get going, he was shut down.
The diagnosis: a UCL sprain. The solution: Tommy John surgery in April.
Now, Tommy John isn’t the career death sentence it once was. In today’s game, it’s almost a rite of passage for high-velocity arms.
But that doesn’t mean the road back is easy. Recovery timelines vary, typically ranging from 9 to 18 months depending on the player, the rehab process, and how their body responds to the rebuild.
It’s a grind-physically and mentally.
We’ve already seen a similar situation play out within the Nationals’ own clubhouse. Josiah Gray underwent Tommy John in April 2024 and missed the entire season.
While there was some buzz about a late-season return in 2025, the organization chose caution over urgency, keeping him in Palm Beach to continue his rehab. That patience seems to have paid off-Gray is expected to be fully healthy and ready to rejoin the rotation in 2026.
Herz’s timeline mirrors that of Gray’s in many ways. The surgery in April 2025 all but guaranteed he’d miss the entire season. But if everything has gone according to plan-and there have been no setbacks-then a return to the mound in 2026 is a realistic goal.
That return, though, won’t be immediate or dramatic. Herz will have to work his way back through the minors, likely starting with short outings as he builds back up to a starter’s workload.
Think three innings at a time, slowly stretching it out as his arm regains strength and stamina. And when he does rejoin the big league club, it may not be in the rotation right away.
A bullpen role is very much on the table, giving him the chance to ease back into MLB action without the pressure of going five or six innings out of the gate.
For Herz and the Nationals, 2026 isn’t about rushing back to win a few extra games in a season where expectations are still modest. It’s about making sure he’s fully healthy and ready to contribute long-term.
There’s no need to jeopardize his future by pushing too hard, too fast. The Nats are playing the long game here-and they should.
Because when DJ Herz is right, he’s a problem for opposing hitters. The strikeout numbers speak for themselves, and his ability to miss bats gives him a ceiling that’s hard to ignore. If the Nationals are serious about building a contender in the next few years, Herz figures to be a big part of that equation.
So while fans may not see him dominating from day one in 2026, the bigger picture matters more. A healthy, confident DJ Herz in 2027 and beyond is worth the wait.