If Paul Toboni is leaning toward a lighter touch this winter, the Nationals’ bullpen may be the place he chooses to make his biggest swing.
The case for that approach is hard to miss. Washington’s record-setting 42 blown saves weren’t all the same kind of damage, but the painful ones mattered most: 24 of them turned possible wins into losses. Toboni addressed that at the end of September on the radio and pointed out that if even half of those losses had flipped the other way, the Nationals likely would have been in the postseason.
That’s the kind of math that makes a moderate roster overhaul look a lot more attractive. Washington won 77 games in 2026, and adding back 12 of those bullpen losses would put the club at 89 - right in playoff territory.
Of course, it’s never that tidy. The Nationals also have to replace the production they lost in trades involving Foster Griffin, Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead.
Some of that was patched over. Andres Chaparro and Yohandy Morales helped cover Mead’s absence, while Andrew Alvarez filled in well for Griffin.
But the roster still has obvious gaps, especially at first base and in the starting rotation. The team could use a left-handed first baseman and another impact starter.
The rotation picture is still murky, even if some names are starting to separate. On Opening Day, the staff was built around Griffin, Cade Cavalli, Jake Irvin, Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas.
Toboni hasn’t tipped his hand on Irvin, and the group that feels safest right now may be Cavalli, Alvarez and Connelly Early. Early’s health is part of that conversation, naturally, and if he’s in the mix, that leaves two more spots open for a mix of internal options and outside additions like Irvin, DJ Herz, Josiah Gray or Jackson Kent.
“Cade we obviously believe in, and I think he’s earned a spot,” Toboni said. “I think Alvy has thrown great, and he’s put himself in a position where he’s going to be throwing, hopefully, a bunch of high-quality innings for us next year.
We’re very optimistic about Connelly and what he’s shown. Beyond that, we’re going to be pretty open-minded.”
Free agency offers help on the mound, but not much certainty. There are plenty of starters available, though most wouldn’t necessarily move the needle.
The market will be crowded for the top names. A return for Griffin, who is now a free agent, would make sense, and Michael King remains a name to watch because of his college connection with Nationals manager Blake Butera.
First base brings its own problem. The left-handed options are thin.
Jake Bauers stands out after a late-career breakthrough, and the source material pegs him as the 5th-best first baseman in baseball by WAR. After that, the list gets more complicated fast.
Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper sit behind him, but both are only rumored trade candidates and neither feels like an obvious fit. Kody Clemens, meanwhile, could be available from the Twins after turning into a useful platoon first baseman.
Then there’s the wild-card idea: James Wood at first base. It’s the kind of thought that gets people talking because the Nationals don’t have a left-handed first baseman among their top prospects.
There are right-handed options in the system, but no lefties. Some people think Wood couldn’t make the move.
Others think it’s at least worth a try.
The bullpen, though, remains the clearest priority. Washington’s relievers didn’t just cough up those blown saves; they also finished with a 4.99 ERA.
The free-agent relief market is deep, but the best arms will draw heavy competition. One route could be finding a setup man who can grow into the closer role.
“I wouldn’t want to pigeonhole us into just going after guys that have ninth-inning experience,” said Toboni. “Not to say it’s not important; it’s just that there are countless relievers across the league that aren’t throwing in the ninth inning that are really good arms that we’d love to have.”
Butera’s message lines up with that thinking. The Nationals are “ going to spend a lot of time on the bullpen this offseason.” For a team that watched so many games slip away late, that sounds like the right place to start.
In Other News...
Nationals Enter A Defining Offseason With One Huge CJ Abrams Question
The Nationals 2026 season ended at 77-85, an 11-win jump from the year before, and now the organization heads into its first offseason with Blake Butera, Paul Toboni and Ani Kilambi having completed a full year together. That matters because this winter is less about patchwork fixes and more about defining what kind of club they want to be, from how aggressively they shop in free agency to which young players are ready to take on bigger leadership roles.
One of the biggest decisions sits in the middle of that larger picture: what to do with All-Star CJ Abrams. His position, long-term fit and overall role remain central to the Nationals plans, and the club is expected to revisit everything again in Spring Training. The same uncertainty hangs over the pitching staff, where Washington has already extended Cade Cavalli but still has major rotation questions to sort out before 2027 comes into focus. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Face A Big Offseason Question As Young Core Emerges
The Nationals have spent years watching their payroll slide from the heights of the 2010s, and the result has been a roster built less for headline spending than for patience. After the club was still in the wild card conversation near the trade deadline, the front office shifted even more firmly toward development, leaning into a younger core while keeping one eye on a future in which money might again matter more in Washington.
Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin remain the clearest reminders of how expensive missteps can linger, but the bigger question now is whether the Nationals will finally have the flexibility to change course once the offseason opens. There is a sense around the organization that spending could move in a different direction, though any real shift will have to be weighed against the uncertainty hanging over collective bargaining talks and the broader shape of what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Are Quietly Turning The Page On A Troubling Bullpen Mess
Washingtons bullpen reset is continuing in small but telling ways, with two familiar arms now moving on after difficult 2026 seasons. Justin Lawrence and Max Kranick, both former Nationals relievers, have elected minor league free agency and will be looking for new minor league contracts for 2027 after being outrighted off the 40-man roster.
The departures fit the larger picture of a relief group that never really settled last season, and both pitchers were part of the churn that forced the club to keep searching for answers. Lawrence struggled badly in his time with Washington, and Kranick never got much traction after coming back from injury, leaving the Nationals with another pair of vacancies to sort through as the offseason keeps unfolding. [Read more 🡒]