The Nationals keep proving they can pile up runs in a hurry. What they still haven’t proven is that they can finish the job when the game tightens up.
That was the story again last night. Washington spent much of the night in a 3-2 game and never found the swing to force things even. The Blue Jays bullpen slammed the door, and Louis Varland ended it by striking out Luis Garcia Jr.
It’s worth saying up front: Toronto’s relief corps deserves real credit. The back end is nasty, and the trio of Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman and Varland has been a problem for hitters.
Hoffman can be a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act, but last night he was electric. Rogers and Varland have ERA’s of 1.51 and 1.02 respectively, and they looked every bit as tough as those numbers suggest.
Still, this wasn’t just one bullpen outdueling another lineup. The Nationals have been running into this same wall in late innings all season.
The 8th and 9th have become trouble spots. Washington hasn’t been able to generate enough offense there, and when the bats do stir, the bullpen has often given it right back.
That’s where the larger concern starts to creep in. It’s hard not to wonder whether all those blown leads have started to weigh on the offense. The team can look a little pressed in close spots, especially when the game gets tight and every pitch starts to matter more.
The numbers back that up. Washington has been excellent in low leverage and insane in medium leverage situations, but the production drops in high leverage.
As a team, the Nationals have an 88 wRC+ in those spots, which ranks 22nd in baseball. With runners in scoring position overall, the offense looks a lot more ordinary than elite.
None of that changes the bigger picture: this is still a very good offense. The Nationals lead the league in runs, home runs and OPS.
They can bury teams early and make games feel over before the middle innings are done. That kind of firepower is a real weapon, especially for a club with a pitching staff that gives up as much as this one does.
But last night was a missed chance. The pitchers did enough to keep the game within reach, and the offense never delivered the punch it needed. Washington let 42 year old Max Scherzer off the hook early, and players like Jose Tena and Dylan Crews ran into veteran traps and got themselves out.
Once the game settled into that 3-2 score, the Nationals didn’t create much danger. There was some traffic in the final innings, but it came after two quick outs. Hoffman and Varland both settled in and finished the night.
That’s what makes the walkoff drought so strange. For a team with this kind of offense and this kind of chaos around it, you’d expect at least one game to end with a bang. Instead, Washington still has no walkoffs all season.
They’ve had chances. The one that stands out came against the Giants in April, when they loaded the bases with nobody out in the bottom of the 10th.
The moment got tight, the offense started pressing, and Nasim Nunez swung at ball 4 with the bases loaded. The Nationals lost that game.
Their 13-14 record in one-run games isn’t a disaster, but it does leave room to think about what’s been left on the table. If Washington is going to push toward the playoffs, the offense is going to have to carry the load. That’s a lot to ask, but the late-game issues are real.
It’s not the team’s biggest problem. Not even close.
But it keeps showing up, and that makes it hard to ignore. One walkoff would probably feel like a release valve.
For now, though, the Nationals are left with an elite offense that still has a very real Achilles heel.
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