The MLB draft lottery has turned what used to be a straightforward race to the bottom into a much messier puzzle. Under the old order, the worst record meant the top pick.
Now, the pre-set odds decide who gets the first ball, and the three worst teams all sit on the same odds to land No. 1.
That shift has already changed the Nationals’ draft path more than once. Based on the 2022 standings, Washington lost 107 games and would have owned the first pick under the old rules, where Paul Skenes would have been the prize.
Instead, the Pirates moved from the fourth-worst record to the top spot, Washington landed second, and the Nats took Dylan Crews. In 2025, the lottery finally broke their way, giving Washington the No. 1 pick and Eli Willits.
The Nationals have also seen how eligibility can alter everything. Last year, they had the third-worst record in baseball but were ineligible for the lottery, so they picked 11th and selected Chris Hacopian in the 2026 draft. The same thing happened in the 2024 draft, when Washington picked 10th and drafted Seaver King.
The current projected top lottery odds for the No. 1 pick show just how tight the race can be. Colorado, the Los Angeles Angels, and Oakland are all sitting at about 19.1%. Kansas City is next at 11.6%, followed by Washington at 8.7% and the Mets at 6.4%.
There are more layers on top of that. All non-playoff teams can be eligible for the Top-6 spots, but this year the Giants are ineligible because they were in the lottery last year, and the Pirates are ineligible because they picked in the Top-6 for two straight years. The Mets also face a separate wrinkle: if they do not finish in the Top-6, they will be hit with a 10-spot penalty for CBT over-spending rules.
It is a complicated system, and Tankathon tracks the odds in daily format.
Baseball America has also already put out its top six prospects for the 2027 MLB draft, led by elite high school shortstop Dylan Seward of Norco (Calif.) HS. The group also includes left-hander Tomas Valincius of Mississippi State, Florida shortstop Brendan Lawson, Oregon State right-hander Dax Whitney, West Virginia catcher/second baseman Gavin Kelly, and Wake Forest right-hander Chris Levonas.
Rounding out Baseball America’s top 10 are Lubin Rincon, a shortstop from The Bennett School in Houston; Jacob Seamon, an outfielder from Metrolina Christian Academy in Indian Trail, N.C.; Landon Hairston, an outfielder from Arizona State; and Landon Mack, a right-hander from Tennessee.
Those names are not a prediction of the exact top 10 when 2027 arrives, but they do give an early look at the board.
As for the current race, the Nationals and Mets are tied with 68 wins, though Washington has two more losses. The Nationals are also two wins ahead of the Royals.
In Other News...
Nationals Depth Arms Are Creating A Late-Season Question
Late in the season, the Nationals lower-level pitching inventory is still offering small reminders that the organization has more than one arm worth tracking. At Rochester, DJ Herz turned in another solid outing, working 4 innings and limiting the damage to one run as Scranton/Wilkes-Barre came away with a 5-3 win. In the same game, Rochester also got a look at Cayden Wallaces power, with his 11th homer of the year providing one of the more notable swings of the day.
The more interesting tension for Washington is how those depth arms are stacking up in the system at once. New Hampshire fell 2-1 in 10 innings after a walk-off two-run homer, but the game had been shaped earlier by scoreless work from Yoel Tejada Jr. and Alex Clemmey before Thomas Schultz entered late and the inning unraveled. For a club watching closely for rotation help beyond the obvious names, those mixed results only sharpen the question of who is pushing closest to the conversation. [Read more 🡒]
Nats Push For Series Win As Pitching Plans Suddenly Get Interesting
A win in the previous game left Washington with a chance to take the series, and the pitching picture around it has changed quickly. Andrew Alvarez is set to start as the left-hander gets the ball, while the clubs offense has continued to do enough to keep the Nationals in a good spot, with a positive run differential and a top-three ranking in MLB in runs scored this season.
The roster churn has been part of the story, too, with the Nationals making several moves as they try to keep the staff moving in the right direction. Harry Ford is dealing with an injury concern but avoided an injured-list stint, and the clubs latest mix of arms now gives the next game a little more intrigue than it had a day ago. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Bullpen Reset Just Took A Turn Fans Saw Coming
The Nationals finally snapped their seven-game skid with a 4-3 win over the Angels, but the bigger bullpen storyline came once the game was over. Washington moved quickly to make a roster change, sending right-hander Clayton Beeter to Triple-A Rochester as the club continues sorting out the late innings after a long stretch of uneven relief work.
Beeter had been the teams primary closer for much of the season, but the second half brought a different version of him, with a rising ERA and the kind of control issues that made his role increasingly shaky. The demotion fits the direction many around the team likely saw coming, but it also leaves Washington with another bullpen question to answer as it tries to build some momentum off a much-needed win. [Read more 🡒]