FanGraphs is looking at the Nationals a whole lot more kindly than some of the other early reads on Washington.
Paul Toboni, the club’s president of baseball operations, has already spent part of this week trying to frame where the organization is headed after a season that beat outside expectations. In a letter to fans, he pointed back to the preseason forecast and the way the team answered it.
“ Before the [2026] season, experts projected us to win 65 games. We exceeded those expectations with 77 wins, remained in playoff contention through late July and racked up a number of other accomplishments along the way. ”
Toboni is set to go to Las Vegas next week for the annual GM Meetings, and he could still make a move before then, whether that ends up being a free agent signing or a trade. He said he is working hard behind the scenes and compared that effort to an iceberg, with most of it hidden below the surface. He also laid out where his attention is right now.
“ Building strength throughout our organization while adding depth at every level will position us well. That is where I’m focused and how I’m spending my time. ”
The projections around Washington are all over the place. Bleacher Report had the Nationals 20th in its year-end power rankings, while FanGraphs placed them eighth in the NL with an 80-82 record. That projection has them four wins behind the Atlanta Braves for the final playoff spot, assuming the new collective bargaining agreement leaves just six playoff teams.
Those numbers are only snapshots, though. They were all drawn up before any major free agent signing or blockbuster trade, and Toboni made clear he is not treating 2026’s progress as a promise of what comes next.
“ Our progress in 2026 does not dictate what 2027 will bring. We cannot assume that the same trajectory will continue.
We must find new ways to improve, remain open-minded enough to challenge our own assumptions and hold ourselves accountable to the standards we are establishing. That is what my staff and I remain focused on.
”
He also wrote, “ Every player has a different path, and our responsibility is to help each one maximize his potential. ”
The tone of the letter stood out, especially for a franchise that spent years under Mike Rizzo without that kind of direct message to fans. It felt like Toboni was already moving into a second phase of his tenure after hitting some of the short-term goals in less than a year. Now the target is bigger: October baseball.
He closed with a line that made the point plainly.
“ More than anything, I want you to know,” Toboni wrote to begin his sentence, and then finished with, “that we are working tirelessly to get the Nationals back to playing in October, and our relentless effort will not slow down. ”
There was real evidence behind the optimism, too. The Nationals had seven full-time returning position players who posted OPS gains: Dylan Crews (+5.1%), James Wood (+8.0%), CJ Abrams (+11.5%), Jacob Young (+21.3%), Brady House (+23.7%) Luis Garcia Jr.
(+24.5%), and Keibert Ruiz (+27.6). Taken together, that works out to a 17.4 percent increase in an unweighted average.
Cade Cavalli also developed into an ace pitcher under the new regime, and two additions, Foster Griffin and Curtis Mead, performed well enough that Toboni turned them into more pitching.
Still, the roster is not finished, and the needs are obvious. Washington has a core the team controls through at least the end of the 2028 season, but the outside shopping list is clear: pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus a left-handed impact bat.
There will always be people ready to focus on the negatives, and some of the same names are already floating in trade rumors. Whether you want to dive into that noise or tune it out is up to you. For now, the broader picture is that the Nationals are showing signs of life, the projections are better than they were, and Toboni is pushing the message that the work is only beginning.
In Other News...
Nationals Just Sent A Clear Message About Jacob Young
The Nationals have been busy locking in pieces of their future, and Jacob Young is the latest name to join that list. Washington and the outfielder have reportedly agreed to a contract extension, adding another layer to a young core the club appears intent on keeping together after also extending pitcher Cade Cavalli.
Youngs place in the plan has only grown after an offensive step forward in the 2026 season, and the move signals the organization sees him as more than just a short-term fit. He was already under club control through 2030, but this deal gives the Nationals another clear sign of how they want to shape the roster around players they believe can grow with the team. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Just Took Another Hit From The Lane Thomas Trade
The Lane Thomas trade keeps echoing for the Nationals, and this time the ripple came in the form of Jos Tena leaving the organization. Cleveland claimed the infielder off waivers from Washington, bringing back a player the Guardians originally signed before dealing him to the Nationals in 2024. For a club trying to sort through the depth chart and the long tail of last years deadline moves, it is another reminder that roster churn from a big trade does not stop when the headline deal is done.
Tenas path now swings back to the team that knows him best, but the situation is not simple from here. He is out of minor league options, which means Cleveland will have to carry him on the major league roster or risk putting him back in the same kind of limbo Washington just moved him out of. For the Nationals, it is another small but real loss from a trade that was supposed to help in the moment and is still shaping the roster months later. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Face A Huge CJ Abrams Decision They Can't Avoid
CJ Abrams has become one of the more complicated pieces on Washingtons roster, and not just because of what he has done on the field. The Nationals acquired him in the Juan Soto trade, and now they are reportedly weighing whether to keep building around him or use his value in another major move. His contract runs through 2029, but the broader question is whether the club sees him as part of its long-term infield plan.
Jon Morosi suggested a trade may be more likely than an extension, pointing to Abrams recent strong performance and his preference to stay at shortstop. That creates a tricky fit if Washingtons future plans lean in a different direction, and it is why the Nationals may also be open to listening on James Wood. For a team still sorting out its next core, this is the kind of decision that can shape the rebuild far beyond one offseason. [Read more 🡒]