The Nationals don’t need a monster payroll to win, but they do need pitching that can hold up in October.
That much has been on display throughout this Championship Series round. With the Dodgers as the clear exception, this has been the month of the smaller-spending club. Of the four teams still alive, three sit in the bottom half of the league in payroll, and in the American League, the two cheapest teams are meeting for a shot at the World Series.
For Nationals fans who have spent plenty of time frustrated by the lack of spending, that reality doesn’t erase the issue. But it does show there’s more than one path to contention.
Paul Toboni should be paying close attention to the Rays, Brewers and Guardians, because each of them offers a different version of how to build a winner without living at the top of the payroll list. Ideally, the Nationals become something similar, just with a little more financial muscle.
Toboni’s moves suggest he already understands that model. The three small-market teams still standing share some common traits, even if each one has its own identity. One of the biggest is clear: pitching drives everything.
All four teams left in the postseason have elite staffs, and the Nationals are not there yet. Still, the trades Toboni has made point to someone who knows a deep, nasty pitching group is not optional. It’s the foundation.
There’s even a video out there making the case that the Nationals are borrowing heavily from the Brewers. Player development, roster construction, and the general way the club operates all have echoes of Milwaukee.
That didn’t happen overnight for the Brewers, either. They had to become the machine they are now.
The hope is that Washington can grow into something similar.
At the same time, the rise of the small-market model shouldn’t be mistaken for a reason to avoid free agency. Free agency shouldn’t be the entire blueprint, but it absolutely has value as a way to fill in the gaps. The Nationals lived that during their best stretch in the 2010’s, when Jayson Werth, Max Scherzer, Daniel Murphy, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez all played major roles.
There should be money to work with this offseason, and if it gets used the right way, the roster could move forward fast. Offensively, the Nationals may already be better than a lot of the teams we’re seeing in October.
The numbers back that up, and so does the eye test. But the pitching still has work to do.
Look at the Guardians and the case for a shutdown bullpen is obvious. Cade Smith has been the kind of arm that just ends innings in the 8th and 9th. The Nationals will need to develop that type of late-game force, or go get one.
The postseason teams left alive have all found impact bullpen pieces, though not always the same way. The Dodgers spent big on Tanner Scott and Edwin Diaz, but they also developed Edgardo Henriquez and landed Alex Vesia in a smaller move. The Rays got Bryan Baker in a mid-sized trade and turned a good reliever into an even better one.
That’s the lesson here. There are plenty of ways to build a bullpen, but if the Nationals want to reach their ceiling, they have to get that part right.
October rewards teams with a lot of reliable arms, and the clubs that can keep producing them are usually the ones still playing deep into the month. The Nats don’t have to break the bank to get there.
But they do need good pitching, and they may still need a major move or two to get the kind of firepower that matters.
In Other News...
Nationals Suddenly Have A Farm System That Changes Everything
Paul Tobonis arrival as Nationals president of baseball operations has quickly put a different kind of emphasis on the organization, one built around scouting, development and stacking the system with talent that can help in more than one way. The result is a farm that now looks deeper than it has in years, with several prospects pushing the conversation forward and giving Washington a stronger foundation than the club has had in a while.
At the center of that shift is Eli Willits, whose first full professional season confirmed why the Nationals were so bullish on his future, while other names like Cayden Wallace have also helped raise the systems ceiling. Maxwell Romero Jr. joined that wave as one of the more unexpected breakthrough stories, and it is the collection of those performances that has made Washingtons minor league pipeline worth watching, both for what it might become on the field and for what kind of trade leverage it could create down the road. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Suddenly Have A Catching Decision Fans Didn't Expect
The Nationals thought they had their catching future mapped out when they acquired Keibert Ruiz in 2021 and later locked him up through 2030, but the position has not been nearly as settled as that plan suggested. Ruiz went through uneven stretches on both sides of the ball in 2024 and 2025, which made every bit of progress in 2026 feel important for a club trying to sort out where it stands behind the plate.
Harry Ford was supposed to add another layer to the picture, but injuries and inconsistency have made that path harder to read than expected. With Ruiz still in place and Ford not yet forcing the issue, Washington suddenly has a catching decision on its hands that looked far simpler not long ago. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Have A Bigger Rotation Question Than Fans Wanted
The Nationals have already begun sketching out next seasons rotation, and the picture starts with Cade Cavalli, Andrew Alvarez and Connelly Early. Paul Toboni, the clubs president of baseball operations, has identified that trio as the likeliest starters for 2026, giving Washington at least a partial answer after a year in which rotation stability remained a moving target.
Cavallis rise makes that early framework feel a little more secure. The former first-round pick put together a strong 2026 season and earned a contract extension, which only raises the stakes for what comes next around him. Washington still has work to do, though, and the last two rotation spots are far from settled, with competition inside the organization and the possibility of free-agent help both still in play. [Read more 🡒]