Two of baseball’s biggest surprises in 2026 may have a real shot to turn that surprise into something bigger in 2027.
The Cardinals and Nationals both entered this season with the kind of expectations that usually come with a long rebuild and a lot of losses. Instead, they’ve been better than that.
Both clubs have already been eliminated from playoff contention and are still below .500, but St. Louis still has an outside chance to finish at .500 or better, and Washington is sitting on a positive run differential at the moment.
For teams that many people would have guessed were headed for 100 losses, that’s a meaningful step forward.
The question now is whether either club can make the jump from pleasant surprise to actual contender next year. The answer is yes, but only if the weak spots get fixed.
The biggest issue in both places is the bullpen, and it isn’t close.
For rebuilding teams, bullpen construction usually isn’t the first thing that gets attention. That has shown up clearly in both of these cases.
St. Louis and Washington have both been hammered by late-inning problems, and the numbers are ugly.
The Cardinals own a 4.55 bullpen ERA, which ranks 24th, along with a 4.32 bullpen FIP, 22nd in MLB. Their relievers have struck out hitters at a 21.2% clip, 23rd, and they’ve piled up 30 blown saves, third-most in the league, plus 106 meltdowns, second-most.
Washington’s bullpen has been even worse. The Nationals are sitting on a 5.04 ERA, 29th, and a 4.97 FIP, also 29th. Their strikeout rate is 18.9%, dead last among MLB bullpens, and they lead the league in both blown saves with 39 and meltdowns with 110.
For those unfamiliar, a meltdown is a FanGraphs reliever stat that tracks appearances in which a pitcher worsens his team’s chances of winning by 6% or more. By that measure, both clubs have spent too much time watching leads slip away. In Washington’s case, it has been especially rough.
That kind of bullpen damage matters more than ever. Starters are going less and less deep into games, which puts more pressure on the relievers behind them.
A team can survive an ordinary bullpen if the offense and rotation are strong enough. It is much harder to do that when the bullpen is this shaky.
The encouraging part is that bullpen fixes are usually available. They do not always require a splashy signing, and neither the Cardinals nor the Nationals are likely to chase a big-name closer anyway.
There are other ways to clean things up: promotions from within, converting starters, and developmental gains tied to pitch shapes and arsenals. However it happens, both teams need better relief work if 2027 is going to mean anything.
The rest of each roster gives reason for optimism.
Washington has one of the best offenses in MLB, and it is also the youngest lineup in the league. That is a strong foundation.
The Nationals have also resisted calls to trade infielder CJ Abrams, which keeps another key piece in place. What would help even more is a breakthrough from outfielder Dylan Crews, the 24-year-old former No. 2 overall pick who was drafted just behind his LSU teammate Paul Skenes.
If Crews becomes the hitter the Nationals need, he could join young All-Star James Wood as part of the core.
St. Louis has a similarly youthful attack, and it is the second-youngest lineup in MLB.
It looks mostly set going forward, with JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson forming part of the backbone. The recent emergence of Leo Bernal at catcher gives the Cardinals another piece to build around.
At this point, the main long-term questions appear to be third base and center field, and even there the club has prospects coming and enough depth to patch things together if needed.
The underlying offensive indicators are promising for both clubs as well. Their xwOBA numbers suggest these young lineups are producing in ways that should carry forward, not just in ways that are propped up by luck.
The rotations are less settled, but both teams have enough moving parts to see a path forward.
For St. Louis, Kyle Leahy, Michael McGreevy, and Andre Pallante look like 2027 fixtures.
The remaining spots could be filled by Quinn Mathews, Matthew Liberatore, Richard Fitts, Cooper Hjerpe, and possibly Triple-A arms such as Jurrangelo Cijntje and Mason Molina. There are also more arms behind them at Double-A.
Washington has Cade Cavalli in place near the front of the rotation, and injured left-hander Connelly Early, acquired from the Red Sox before the trade deadline, may be able to make his Nationals debut before the regular season ends. Andrew Alvarez looks like a promising controllable lefty, and Jarlin Susana should be ready soon. Both clubs also have room to shop for bargain free agents, which could help fill in the gaps.
There is, of course, a larger wrinkle hanging over all of this: the new collective bargaining agreement. Negotiations could even affect whether there is much of a 2027 season at all. But one possible outcome matters directly here, and that is playoff expansion.
That would lower the bar for contention. It is not hard to imagine MLB pushing for more postseason teams again, especially with owners eager to maximize media revenue and playoff broadcast money. The players may have little choice but to agree after dealing with other ownership demands.
If that happens, teams like the Cardinals and Nationals get an even clearer lane toward relevance.
So while neither club is ready to declare the rebuild finished, both have enough young talent in the lineup and rotation to take another step. Fix the bullpen, get some help around the edges, and 2027 starts to look a lot more interesting in St. Louis and Washington.
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Red Wings Suddenly Face Pressure In A Playoff Race That Tightened
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Buffalos C.J. Van Eyk made sure the Red Wings never found a way back, keeping the offense quiet for most of his outing and turning the game into a reminder of how fragile the margin is in the standings. With the second-half race tightening across the league, every stumble matters, and Rochester now has to absorb this one quickly before the pressure of the chase starts to pile up. [Read more 🡒]