Nasim Nunez has had every chance to make a case as an everyday player for the Washington Nationals, and the case has not come together.
There were flashes in the summer, enough to keep the door open for a while, but the season has largely laid bare the same issue: his game does not hold up in a full-time role. Nunez has useful tools, but the production has not matched the opportunity.
The offensive numbers tell the story in a blunt way. Nunez owns a .534 OPS on the season, more than 50 points below the second-worst qualified hitter.
That kind of gap is hard to ignore, no matter how valuable a player might be on the bases or in the field. To stay on an MLB field every day, there are certain offensive standards that have to be met, and Nunez is not reaching them.
The underlying data points in the same direction. His Baseball Savant profile shows the same problems over and over: he is not strong enough to consistently drive the ball.
His xwOBA, xSLG and barrel rate all sit in the first percentile. There are ways to survive with limited power, but that requires a different offensive approach, and Nunez either cannot or will not get there.
Chandler Simpson offers the clearest contrast. He has many of the same issues as Nunez, but he is hitting .308 this season because he has leaned all the way into contact and speed.
Simpson strikes out only 8.2% of the time, while Nunez is striking out more than 20% of the time. If Nunez is going to have any offensive path, it has to look something like Simpson’s.
Right now, though, he does not appear to have the bat-to-ball skill to pull that off.
That leaves the Nationals with a player producing a 52 wRC+, which means he has been about half as valuable as an average hitter. It is unusual to see a number that low from someone with more than 450 plate appearances, because players in that range usually do not get this much leash.
The usual defense of Nunez is that he can make up for the bat with his glove and legs. But even there, the overall value has not turned positive. fWAR has him at -0.2 despite elite baserunning and very good defense. In other words, he has to be an extremely poor hitter to end up in negative territory, and that is exactly where he is.
The Nationals’ new leadership has clearly shown more trust in his skill set than the previous regime did. He has received a much bigger look, and CJ Abrams was even moved off shortstop so Nunez could get opportunities there. Seaver King has been waiting in the wings, but Paul Toboni has stuck with Nunez.
The problem is that the faith has not been rewarded. His slash line sits at .211/.289/.245, and recently the bat has gone ice cold.
Over his last 15 games, he is hitting .116 with a .302 OPS. Over the last 15, that has somehow gotten even worse: a .095 average and a .235 OPS.
Those are the kind of numbers that stop a lineup cold.
With the offense struggling more after the deadline, the Nationals cannot keep running out a player producing like this on a regular basis. In big spots, he is essentially an automatic out, and that was the feeling again last night when Nunez looked helpless at the plate.
There is still a place for a player with his kind of speed and defense, especially in a rebuilding year. He can help as a defensive replacement and a pinch runner.
But if Washington goes into next season with Nunez penciled in as an Opening Day starter, that would be a mistake. He has had the chance, and he has shown he is not an everyday player.
In Other News...
Nationals Roster Move Adds Intrigue To A Telling Minors Night
While the Nationals farm system cycled through another full slate of minor league action, the night offered a mix of useful development markers across Rochester, Harrisburg, Wilmington and Fredericksburg. There were timely hits, steady innings and a handful of pitching lines that helped round out a busy evening for the organization, the kind of update that often says as much about depth as it does about the box score.
Amid all of that, the roster shuffle at the big league level added an extra layer of intrigue, with right-hander Max Kranick being outrighted from Washington. And because the performances below the surface carried their own weight, the night also stood out for what DJ Herz and Juan Reyes were able to do on the mound, giving the Nationals a couple more reasons to watch those affiliates closely as the season moves along. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Bullpen Is Chasing The Wrong Kind Of History
The late-season numbers have been ugly enough for the Nationals bullpen to make unwanted history, and the latest reminder came in a loss tied to Mookie Betts going deep. Washington has now seen 16 different pitchers record blown saves this season, a sign of how many different arms have been asked to shoulder the problem while manager Blake Butera keeps trying to piece together workable innings out of a unit that has spent most of the year under pressure.
There is still more uncertainty ahead, too, because one of the more important relief options is dealing with a forearm issue that could keep him out for a while. For a staff already chasing the wrong kind of milestone, any absence only adds to the challenge of keeping games within reach and avoiding another entry in a season full of negative firsts. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Still Have A Few Ways To Turn Promise Into Frustration
The Nationals post-deadline reset was supposed to tilt the rest of the season toward evaluation and momentum, with a few roster moves designed to help the long view while also patching over the bullpen. Instead, the club has spent much of the stretch fighting through the same old drag points, from a cold offense to shaky relief work, all while trying to absorb the absence of key players. For a team still trying to see what it has, the next few weeks are about more than results. They are about whether the promising parts of the roster can keep carrying their weight.
Dylan Crews has given Washington a reason to look up with a late-July burst, and CJ Abrams has handled a move away from shortstop, but those are the kinds of developments that can still shift on the Nationals quickly. Young players are often the first place a season can change shape, for better or worse, and the club does not have much margin if either the bat or the alignment stops working as cleanly as it has in flashes. The broader concern is not just whether the Nationals can finish on a better note, but whether the gains they are banking on survive long enough to matter when the offseason arrives. [Read more 🡒]