We’re past the obvious names now, and that’s where the Nationals’ relief market gets interesting.
A couple weeks ago, the focus was on five free-agent bullpen options Washington could chase this offseason. This time around, the list narrows to two less expected candidates: Tim Hill and Brusdar Graterol. Different pitchers, different paths, same basic question - could either one give the Nationals useful innings in 2027?
Hill is the safer bet on paper, even after the roughest season of his career at age 36. The numbers look ugly at first glance: a -1.1 FanGraphs WAR, a career-low 3.84 K/9, and a 4.60 ERA.
But strikeouts have never been the point with Hill. The submarining lefty works from a -22° arm angle, leans on his sinker more than 80% of the time, and has built a career on getting the ball on the ground.
His groundball rate has topped 60% for his career, and last season that number was the highest it has ever been.
The real separator between Hill’s 2024 and 2026 seasons looks a lot like luck on fly balls. He posted a 3.36 ERA in 2024 despite an even lower K-BB% than this year, then took a step back in 2026.
The biggest difference was home runs. Hill’s HR/FB rate last season was 30.8%, a number so extreme that since FanGraphs started tracking the stat in 2002, only one other pitcher with at least 50 innings has posted a higher mark: Dan Otero in 2018 at 31.6%.
Hill and Otero also matched up in some eerie ways - both threw exactly 58.2 innings, allowed the same HR/9, and carried xFIPs about 1.7 runs lower than their FIPs.
That points to a pitcher who may have been hit harder by bad fortune than bad process. Hill turns 37 in 2027, and his 21 shutdowns against 12 meltdowns last season weren’t exactly eye-popping.
But his WHIP was the third-lowest of his career, and while xFIP may undersell him because his career HR/FB sits at 16.1% rather than the 10.5% league-average figure built into the metric, it’s hard to imagine last year’s home run damage repeating at that level. He shouldn’t cost much, and if Washington improves its infield defense, he could fit as a middle-inning lefty on a team that struggled to get production from left-handers in 2026, even with Erik Tolman beginning to emerge.
Graterol is a different kind of gamble entirely. At this stage, he’s less a finished product than a question mark with a fastball.
Once a well-regarded prospect - as high as 68th on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 in 2019 with the Twins - he never became the starter some expected, but he did develop into a nasty late-inning reliever. By 2023, he was overpowering hitters with a sinker that averaged 98.6 MPH, pairing a first-percentile swing-and-miss rate with a 99th percentile groundball rate and enough command to produce 1.4 fWAR in a dominant season.
The problem, as always, has been health. Graterol has landed on the major league injured list nine times since the Dodgers acquired him ahead of the 2020 season.
He missed the first four months of 2024 with shoulder inflammation, returned for one game and one out, then went down again with a hamstring strain. Two weeks after being activated, shoulder trouble knocked him out once more until the World Series, when he made three appearances as the Dodgers used every arm they had to get past the Yankees.
That November, he had labrum surgery and spent the first half of 2025 rehabbing. He never made it back that year, despite hopes for an August assignment, and then the picture got murkier again this season.
Brandon Gomes told the press he’d be full-go for spring training, but by February Dave Roberts said Graterol was in a “holding pattern.” In May, he finally got into rehab games at Triple-A, only to suffer a back injury that led to season-ending surgery by June.
So, yes, the uncertainty is real. But Graterol is still only 28, and in his brief Triple-A work he showed enough to keep the door open: 95.5 MPH average fastball velocity and the same groundball-heavy profile that once made him so dangerous.
If the arm is intact and the velocity holds, there’s upside here. After two, nearly three years without pitching in the majors, he’s a complete unknown - but the risk is low enough that a team could justify taking the shot.
In Other News...
Nationals Offseason Plan Comes Down To Two Key Lineup Upgrades
The Nationals have already made one notable move to settle part of their future, extending Cade Cavalli late in the season, but the bigger work still lies ahead after a 77-85 finish and a seventh straight year out of the playoffs. As the front office looks at the roster for next season, the infield picture is one of the first places it has to clean up, especially with CJ Abrams expected to shift over to second base.
Finding a new shortstop would go a long way toward stabilizing the lineup, and Mauricio Dubon stands out as one possible fit if Washington decides to shop in that market. The other spot that needs attention is designated hitter, where the Nationals did not get enough production, and Brandon Lowe is among the names that could make sense as a target if they want more impact in the middle of the order. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals May Have A Bigger Jacob Young Decision Than Fans Realize
The Nationals are heading into the offseason with a familiar sort of roster question: whether to keep a young, useful piece in place or turn him into something that better fits the long-term plan. Jacob Young has given Washington reasons to believe in him, thanks to his growth at the plate and the steady defense he brings in center field, but there is also a larger picture at play as the club looks for ways to build toward contention.
Interest from the Yankees only adds another layer to the decision. Washington could use a Young trade to target players who fit its push toward the 2027 playoff picture, while also opening more room for Dylan Crews to take on center field duties. It is the kind of move that can look subtle from the outside, but for a team still sorting out its timeline, it could end up being one of the more significant calls of the winter. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Face A Lerner Question Fans Are Tired Of Asking
The Nationals have spent years hearing the same familiar question about when the organization will finally push beyond caution and invest like a contender. Washington has the smallest payroll in Major League Baseball by $25 million, and since the 2020-21 offseason the club has not made a major free-agent splash to signal a different approach. Even so, last seasons step forward under new leadership gave the front office a little more credibility, and it left open the possibility that this winter could look different if ownership decides the roster is worth a real boost.
What makes this offseason especially interesting is that the financial backdrop around the sport could change the calculation. A possible salary floor in a lockout scenario would put added pressure on clubs at the bottom of the spending ladder, and the Nationals would be one of the teams most affected by that conversation. For fans who have been waiting for more aggressive investment, the question is no longer whether Washington can improve. It is whether the Lerners are finally ready to spend enough to make the improvement matter. [Read more 🡒]