The Nationals may want to believe Jake Irvin can still be part of the answer, but the numbers say otherwise.
Spencer Nusbaum recently noted that Paul Toboni said Irvin has “put himself in good position to compete for a rotation spot”. That’s a hopeful line on paper. In practice, it feels hard to justify after what Irvin has put together over the past 2.5 seasons.
His 2024 season was respectable enough, built on a strong first half. He finished with a 4.41 ERA across 187.2 innings and 2 fWAR, which looked like the profile of a back-end starter.
Since then, though, the wheels have come off. He had a 5.70 ERA in 2025 and followed that with a 5.48 earned run average this season.
The velocity has dipped, the home run issues have lingered, and the results have been rough.
The larger picture is even less encouraging. Since the All-Star break of 2024, Irvin has posted a 5.68 ERA in 358.1 innings.
That’s not a short slump. That’s a long stretch of a pitcher not getting the job done.
There are still reasons people around the team may like him. He’s a big right-hander with plenty of extension, a low arm slot, and a fastball that can play in the mid-90’s in shorter bursts.
By all accounts, he’s also a hard worker and a good guy to have around. There’s even a case for him in relief, where his stuff could tick up and play differently.
The Nationals, though, appear to be banking on a different outcome. Nusbaum wrote that the team believes Irvin can sit at 95 MPH deep into starts if the development goes right.
Right now, he’s working in West Palm Beach trying to build that velocity. But that’s been the story for years, and he’s about to turn 30.
That’s why the idea of giving him another turn in the rotation feels so shaky. A pitcher with back-to-back seasons above a 5.45 ERA has already had plenty of runway. At some point, the organization has to stop hoping the same setup will produce a different result.
If the Nationals need an injury replacement, Irvin can still serve that role. But planning to open 2027 with him in the starting five is a different matter entirely. That doesn’t line up with the idea of a team trying to compete, especially with the expectation that CJ Abrams will be back and the club is aiming toward 2027.
Irvin’s fastball-curveball mix can work when everything is clicking, and there’s no doubt he’s easy to root for. Still, the team has seen enough to know the current version of him has not held up as a starter.
That leaves the Nationals with a bigger task this winter: find better pitching. If the budget is tight, Paul Toboni still needs to get creative. Trading Dylan Crews for pitching or taking higher-risk fliers would make more sense than simply running it back.
The offense should at least be solid, especially with Abrams returning. Now the pitching staff needs real help, not just internal hope. Player development matters, but the Nationals need more talented arms in the mix.
No one is asking the Lerners to go get Tarik Skubal. But if the goal is a push for a Wild Card spot in 2027, the Nationals have to seriously upgrade the pitching staff with outside additions.
In Other News...
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The Nationals still have a late-inning question hanging over their roster, and the market may have just nudged one familiar name into view. Evan Phillips is now headed to Atlanta on a three-year contract, a move that makes it likely Raisel Iglesias will not be back with the Braves, and that leaves a proven closer suddenly available in a winter where Washington still needs help at the back end of games.
Iglesias has long fit the profile of the kind of reliever the Nationals could use, especially on a one-year deal that would give the club stability without a long commitment. For a team trying to tighten up its bullpen and avoid overextending itself, the appeal is obvious, even if this remains more a logical fit than a confirmed pursuit. [Read more 🡒]
James Wood Just Gave Nationals Fans A Bigger Reason To Believe
James Woods rise just got another national spotlight. The young outfielder was named to the first-team All-MLB in the 2026 MLB Awards, a recognition that puts him among the games best and gives Washington a fresh centerpiece to point to as it tries to build toward something bigger. He became the first Nationals player to earn All-MLB status since 2021, a reminder that the organization has at least one emerging star already performing on a stage that matters beyond the standings.
Wood did it over 135 games, and the production was hard to miss even with 27 games lost to injury. He finished with 30 home runs and a .388 on-base percentage, the kind of blend that makes him look less like a promising piece and more like a foundational one. The rest of the awards season offered a few more encouraging signs for Washington too, with CJ Abrams drawing support in National League MVP voting, but Woods honor is the one that really changes the conversation around the clubs future. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Draft Lottery Outlook Leaves Plenty Still In Play
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The timing of the next lottery is part of the intrigue, too, with the 2027 event expected to land during the Winter Meetings in December unless a possible CBA lockout changes the calendar. For a Nationals club trying to map out its future, the main takeaway is simple enough: plenty remains in play, and the final shape of the draft order is still a long way from settled. [Read more 🡒]