The Nationals head into Fenway Park carrying a little momentum, but not much margin for error.
Washington ended a four-game skid by taking two straight from the Orioles, a needed series win that kept the club from slipping further in a crowded National League East. Even after that bounce-back, the Nationals sit fourth in the division and 2.0 games out of a playoff spot. Now they open a three-game set against a Red Sox team that has been linked to them all season because of Washington president of baseball operations Paul Toboni, whose front office roots run deep in Boston.
That connection adds a layer to the series, even though the two players from Toboni’s first trade with his former club, Jake Bennett and Luis Perales, won’t be on the field in this matchup.
Boston’s season has gone from lofty to messy in a hurry. The Red Sox were picked by many to contend for a World Series title, but they arrive at 36-46. Still, they’re coming off their sharpest stretch of the year after sweeping the Yankees in four games and finishing it with a comeback walk-off win in 10 innings on Sunday night.
Washington will open the series with right-hander Miles Mikolas, who is 2-6 with a 5.24 ERA. His season has been uneven, though his last outing against Philadelphia was at least a step in the right direction.
After his best start of the year was followed by a rough outing against Tampa Bay, Mikolas settled in for 3.1 innings against the Phillies and allowed two runs, both unearned. He now draws a Boston lineup that leans left-handed, so pitch selection will matter from the first inning on.
The Red Sox counter with lefty Ranger Suarez, and his numbers tell the story of how strong he’s been. Suarez is 3-3 with a 2.83 ERA, which ranks sixth among qualified American League starters and sits just .14 behind teammate Sonny Gray for a spot in the top five.
Washington’s hitters have seen him plenty from his time in Philadelphia, but that doesn’t make the assignment any easier. His mix is deep, and it’s been tough to solve all season.
Tuesday night’s game brings a pair of young arms into the spotlight. Cade Cavalli gets the ball for Washington at 7:10 PM EST, looking to put a rough month behind him.
He has a 4-4 record and a 4.00 ERA overall, but across just 23.2 innings this month he’s posted a 4.94 ERA. His last start was a bright spot: six innings, two runs allowed against the Phillies, his first quality start since May 26.
That outing also matched his season high with 97 pitches, so how long he can stay effective will be worth watching.
Boston will send out Connelly Early, who has been one of the club’s young left-handed arms to emerge this year. He’s 7-5 with a 3.59 ERA and relies more on movement and sequencing than raw power, though he does have a mid-90s fastball with good ride when he needs it.
The swing-and-miss stuff is real, but so is the damage he can allow when hitters get the ball in the air. For Washington, the long ball may be the key to cracking him.
The series wraps Wednesday at 1:35 PM EST with Andrew Alvarez taking the mound for Washington. The left-hander has quietly become a stabilizer for the Nationals since the start of June, giving up two or fewer runs in each of his five starts this month and compiling a 3.00 ERA over that stretch. He’s 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA overall, and the expectation is that Washington will need to lean on its bullpen again after what figures to be another shorter outing.
Boston’s starter in the finale is Payton Tolle, who has stepped into a bigger role with Garrett Crochet out because of injury. Tolle is 4-5 with a 2.78 ERA and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League when he’s right. His high-90s fastball and elite extension make him a tough matchup for anyone, and Washington will have its hands full trying to square him up.
In Other News...
Nationals Deadline Picture Just Shifted In A Way Fans Feared
With the Nationals hanging around the playoff conversation, the trade deadline has started to feel a little different in Washington. A club that looked headed for a quieter summer now has reason to think bigger, and that has naturally pushed attention toward starting pitching help if the right arm becomes available.
One name the Nationals had in the mix was Reid Detmers, with Jose Soriano also mentioned as a possible fit if the Angels decided to listen. For now, though, Los Angeles does not appear eager to move either pitcher, which leaves Washington watching a market that could change quickly and wondering how aggressive it wants to be if the opportunity finally opens up. [Read more 🡒]
Luis Garcia Jr. Is Forcing A Nationals Question Fans Won't Ignore
Luis Garcia Jr. spent the week doing the kind of damage that gets attention beyond one box score, and his two-homer day against the Orioles was the latest sign that his bat is carrying real weight right now. With six home runs on the week, he has turned what had been a steady stretch into something louder, the sort of production that starts to change how a lineup looks around him.
The bigger question for Washington is how long that surge can keep forcing its way into everyday plans. Garcia has been especially dangerous in June, and even in limited looks against left-handers he has held his own well enough to complicate any easy decision. For a Nationals team trying to sort out where the power is coming from, his recent run has made the conversation a lot more interesting. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals Face A Defining Trade Deadline Paul Toboni Can't Miss
The Nationals have spent enough of the summer flashing a lineup that can score and a roster that still has enough talent to keep the front office guessing, but the bigger issue has been the imbalance beneath it all. A strong offense has not been enough to cover for a bullpen that has left the club searching for stability, and with the playoff odds sitting where they are, the trade deadline is less about fine-tuning than it is about deciding what kind of team Washington wants to be.
Paul Toboni and the front office now face the tricky part: weighing the pull of a short-term push against the need to keep building for later. Washington has players who could draw interest around the league, and there is still a real possibility of using the deadline to improve both the bullpen and the farm system, but any move has to be handled carefully. The Nationals do not want to drain the room while they sort out the next phase, which is why this month feels less like a routine deadline and more like a test of the organizations direction. [Read more 🡒]