If the Nationals are going to take a real step forward in 2026, there’s no mystery about where the biggest leap needs to come from: the starting rotation. After showing some promise in 2024, Washington’s starters took a clear step back in 2025, finishing with a 5.18 ERA-second-worst in the majors, ahead of only Colorado. That’s a steep drop from the 4.40 ERA they posted the year before, when it looked like a young core might be turning the corner.
So what went wrong? A little bit of everything.
MacKenzie Gore, fresh off his first All-Star selection, looked like a budding ace in the first half. But the second half was a different story.
His ERA ballooned from 3.02 to 6.75 over his final 11 starts, his WHIP jumped to 1.703, and his strikeouts dipped noticeably. For Gore, the stuff is there-it always has been-but consistency is the missing piece.
At 26, it’s time for him to put together a full season and anchor this rotation the way the Nationals believe he can.
Trevor Williams, who had been a steady presence in 2024, never got going in 2025 before suffering another arm injury that cut his season short. And two of last year’s breakout arms-Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker-both struggled mightily. Irvin, in particular, went from dependable innings-eater to one of the least effective starters in the league, surrendering a league-high 38 home runs and finishing with a 5.70 ERA.
But it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Cade Cavalli, after a long road back from Tommy John surgery, returned to the big leagues and made 10 starts without any health setbacks.
That alone is a win. Even better, he flashed the kind of electric stuff that once made him a top prospect.
Now it’s about doing it over a full season.
Brad Lord stepped into a hybrid role and impressed, especially out of the bullpen. In 29 relief appearances, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.164 WHIP, compared to a 4.99 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 19 starts.
The new front office will have to decide whether his future lies in the rotation or the bullpen. That decision may hinge on how much starting depth the team believes it truly has.
Andrew Alvarez also deserves a mention. He wasn’t a top prospect, but he held his own in five September starts, finishing with a 2.31 ERA. It's a small sample size, but it was enough to earn him a longer look in spring training.
And there’s more help on the way. Josiah Gray, the club’s 2023 All-Star and 2024 Opening Day starter, missed nearly two full seasons but ended 2025 with three scoreless rehab outings in the minors. If he can return to form and slot back in as a reliable mid-rotation arm, that’s a significant boost.
New pitching coach Simon Mathews, who saw this group from the other dugout last year while with the Reds, has already expressed enthusiasm about the talent on hand. “I remember sitting in the dugout feeling helpless watching MacKenzie Gore pitch against us in Cincinnati,” he said.
“There’s just a ton of talent on this staff. Diving into guys like Cade Cavalli, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker … it’s a really exciting group from a young talent perspective.”
That talent is real-but so are the question marks.
Can Gore find consistency and stay dominant for six months? Can Cavalli stay healthy and live up to the hype?
Can Irvin and Parker bounce back after difficult seasons? The Nationals tendered Irvin a contract for 2026, signaling they’re not ready to give up on him despite a rough year.
Parker, meanwhile, saw his ERA jump from 4.29 to 5.68, with his command and strikeout numbers trending in the wrong direction. He ended the year in the bullpen, and it’s unclear where he fits moving forward.
Then there’s the depth question. DJ Herz, who showed flashes in 2024, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be an option later in the year.
Alvarez is in the mix. And the next wave of prospects-Jake Bennett, Riley Cornelio-could make their debuts in 2026.
Further down the line, hard-throwing arms like Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora are working their way back from injuries.
The pieces are there. Some are proven, others are promising, and a few are still question marks.
But if this rotation is going to carry the Nationals into a new era, 2026 has to be the year when potential turns into production. The front office knows it, the coaching staff sees the upside, and the fans are watching closely.
Now it’s up to the arms to deliver.