With the deadline a week away, the Washington Nationals look like a club that should be shopping for bullpen help without getting seduced by the biggest names on the board. The real value may be in the quieter arms - the kind of relievers who won’t dominate the headlines, but could still matter a lot in the stretch run and beyond.
One name that fits that mold is Brennan Bernardino. The left-hander was with the Red Sox last year before getting dealt to the Rockies this offseason, and he checks a box the Nationals badly need filled.
Their bullpen has been a problem, and the search for a left-handed option has to be near the top of the list. Tom Cosgrove and Carson Palquist haven’t been enough, and even the injured PJ Poulin and Richard Lovelady could be upgraded.
Bernardino would be a step up from that group. He’s another low-slot lefty who doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he’s excellent at keeping hitters from squaring him up.
Bernardino ranks in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. Over the last four seasons, he’s posted a 3.31 ERA while averaging more than 50 outings a year.
This season has been his best yet, with a 2.74 ERA, and he’s done that while spending half his games at Coors Field. He’s shown that his soft-contact approach can travel and can hold up over time.
With three years of control after this season, he also shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg, especially at age 34.
The upside play in this group is Elvis Alvarado, though the risk is obvious. The 6-foot-6 right-hander leans hard on a fastball that averages 99 MPH, but the results this year have been rough, as shown by his 5.40 ERA.
Last season was a different story, when he turned in a 3.19 ERA. The issue now is damage control: his 19.2% barrel rate is brutal, and only James Wood has a higher barrel rate than that among qualified hitters.
Still, the stuff is real. Alvarado strikes out more than 29% of hitters and generates plenty of whiffs across his arsenal.
Right now he looks too fastball heavy, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Nationals would ask him to lean more on his splitter, which he uses just 3% of the time. In limited action, that pitch has worked.
His slider can miss bats too, but it’s been too barrel prone. If Washington can help him develop a better second pitch, he has closer-level stuff.
The fastball and sinker are borderline elite. A move out of Sacramento could help him both in development and simply by changing the environment.
There’s also a little extra intrigue here: Alvarado originally signed with the Nationals as an outfielder out of the Dominican Republic before converting to pitching.
Another arm worth circling is Chase Silseth. The Angels have already produced a couple of other names that have been discussed as trade fits - Jose Soriano and Sam Bachman - but Silseth might be the most interesting bullpen target of the bunch.
He started for a while before moving to relief, and the transition has gone well. He owns a 2.79 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 38.2 innings.
Silseth’s four-pitch mix is built to miss bats, and the stuff models like him. He gets empty swings with his 4-seamer, split and sweeper, while also mixing in a sinker to steal the occasional ground ball.
His heater plays up because of the ride it gets from a slightly below-average slot, and the results are eye-catching: a 36.8% whiff rate on the fastball. His split works well off that pitch because it comes out looking the same before diving away, and the sweeper brings plenty of spin too.
There’s even a chance he has more upside left, with the possibility of moving back into a rotation role someday.
The concern is control. Silseth’s 12.4% walk rate is high, though it’s still workable for a reliever.
That’s what keeps him from feeling fully stable, but the package is enticing. He looks like an upgraded version of Clayton Beeter, with a deeper mix and a little more control.
The expectation is that Paul Toboni will add at least one reliever, and maybe more than one, but this feels like the lane he’ll work in. A splashy run at Josh Hader or Mason Miller would be a surprise.
A move for arms in this tier would not be. The Nationals have depth to deal from, whether that’s infield surplus or players nearing Rule 5 eligibility, and this is the kind of transaction that fits both the present and the future.
There should be some selling at this deadline, but buying makes sense too. The challenge for Toboni is finding the balance.
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Schultz has looked sharper in the minors than he has in his major league work, which is part of why the club keeps cycling through options in the back end of games. The corresponding move leaves Washington with another opening to fill, and it underscores just how unsettled the bullpen remains as the Nationals try to piece together enough stability to get through tight games. [Read more 🡒]