The Nationals' front office finally made a move to address the rotation, signing veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas to a one-year, $2.25 million deal. It’s not the kind of splash that sends shockwaves through the league, but it’s a stabilizing addition for a team still sorting out its identity on the mound. With spring training around the corner, let’s take a deeper look at how the Nats’ pitching staff is shaping up for 2026 - a group defined more by opportunity than certainty.
Three Arms, Three Locks
Right now, there are three pitchers you can pencil into the Opening Day rotation: Mikolas, Foster Griffin, and Cade Cavalli.
Griffin and Mikolas bring veteran poise to a rotation that desperately needs it. Mikolas, in particular, is the kind of innings-eater who can take the ball every fifth day and give the bullpen a breather - a valuable trait for a team with so many question marks. He may not light up the radar gun, but he knows how to pitch, and that alone gives him a leg up in this group.
Then there’s Cavalli - the potential ace. After flashing serious upside late last season, the 2020 first-round pick is finally healthy and ready to take on a full workload.
His fastball averaged 97, his secondary stuff showed bite, and most importantly, he looked confident on the mound. Manager Blake Butera has already praised his mound presence, and with no health restrictions heading into camp, Cavalli is poised to take a big leap.
The biggest key for him will be consistency. The stuff is there, but refining his pitch sequencing and tightening his command - particularly early in counts - will be critical.
That’s where new pitching coach Simon Mathews comes in. If Mathews can help Cavalli sharpen his approach, the Nats might just have the frontline starter they’ve been waiting for.
The Battle for the Final Spots
After those three, things get murky.
Jake Irvin is probably the frontrunner for the fourth spot, but he’s far from a lock. He filled the innings-eater role last year, but if he’s still sitting in the low 90s this spring, he could find himself on the outside looking in - especially now that Mikolas is in the fold.
Brad Lord is another intriguing name. He had a solid rookie season, but the numbers tell two different stories depending on the role.
In 19 starts, Lord posted a 4.99 ERA - not disastrous by 2025 Nationals standards, but far from ideal. As a reliever, though?
He was a different pitcher. In 29 relief appearances, he posted a 2.79 ERA, and his velocity ticked up noticeably.
With a limited pitch mix and a fastball that plays better in short bursts, the bullpen might be his best fit. That said, if he’s one of the five best arms in camp, the Nats may still give him another shot in the rotation.
Then there’s the pack of wild cards - Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez, and Ken Waldichuk - all of whom could compete for a rotation spot.
Gray is the most compelling of the bunch. He hasn’t pitched a full season since 2023 due to Tommy John surgery, but when he did, he made the All-Star team and posted a sub-4 ERA.
That number was a bit misleading - the advanced metrics weren’t as kind - but there’s no denying the talent. If his stuff looks crisp this spring, he could force his way back into the mix.
Parker and Alvarez, meanwhile, could carve out roles as swingmen or bulk relievers. Alvarez, in particular, showed flashes down the stretch last season.
He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he’s got a deep arsenal, a good feel for spin, and the poise to navigate a lineup once or twice through. He’s the kind of pitcher who might not wow you, but he can keep you in a game - and that has value, especially with the Nationals embracing a more flexible pitching model under Butera and Toboni.
Depth Pieces and Rehab Projects
The Nationals may not have a lot of proven arms, but they’ve got bodies - and that’s a step forward from where this team was a year or two ago.
Trevor Williams and DJ Herz are both on the 60-day IL as they recover from elbow surgeries. Herz, in particular, is a name to watch later in the season.
He was a breakout candidate heading into 2025 before injuries derailed his year. If he can return to form - the version we saw in 2024 - he could be a major boost to the rotation.
His command remains a question mark, and a bullpen role isn’t out of the question, but the upside is real.
Luis Perales is another arm to keep tabs on. He’s further along in his Tommy John recovery and is expected to start the year in the minors, but he could factor into the equation later in the season, either as a starter or a reliever.
A Rotation in Flux - and That’s Okay
This isn’t a staff loaded with aces or household names. But what it lacks in star power, it makes up for in competition.
There are more legitimate options than there have been in recent years, and that creates a healthy level of internal pressure. For a rebuilding team, that’s exactly what you want.
The addition of Mikolas brings some much-needed clarity - and perhaps raises the bar for guys like Irvin, who now have to prove they offer more than just innings. If Irvin shows up this spring throwing 90-92 again, he could find himself squeezed out.
But that’s the point. The Nationals are trying to find pieces for the future, and if one or two unexpected arms emerge from this crowded field, it’ll be a win. There’s still plenty to sort out before Opening Day, but at least now, there’s a clearer picture of where things stand - and a few names to keep a close eye on.
Baseball is back, and for the Nationals’ pitching staff, the race is just getting started.