For most of the Nationals’ system, the season is already in the books. Jarlin Susana is still out in the Arizona Fall League, and the big right-hander is wasting no time showing why his arm draws so much attention.
Susana, who missed most of the season while recovering from lat surgery, is using the AFL as a chance to get more work before the offseason. In his first two outings, he was named the league’s pitcher of the week after throwing 5.2 innings, striking out 8 batters and walking 2.
The headline number, though, is the one that jumps off the page: 103.8 MPH. That was the hardest pitch thrown in AFL history, and Susana set the record after breaking his own mark just two innings earlier. He’s been sitting in that 101-103 range, and in today’s game that still separates him from most arms.
Susana gets there with two fastballs, a four-seamer and a sinker. The four-seamer doesn’t have ideal shape and he doesn’t get much extension, so the pitch leans heavily on raw velocity to carry it.
The sinker has better shape, but like most sinkers, it’s not really built to miss bats. Even so, those heaters have been more about soft contact than strikeouts.
Arizona Fall League hitters were able to put the ball in play, but as Fangraphs noted, they didn’t really square him up.
That’s where the slider comes in. Susana’s breaking ball is the real separator, the pitch that gives hitters fits.
He creates a ton of spin on it, and the result is violent movement. Fangraphs also noted that Susana was showing two distinct breaking balls, a slider and a sweeper, though most pitch-tracking sites only show one slider shape.
Either way, the bat-missing pitch in his mix is obvious.
That slider has been his calling card throughout his minor league career. It’s a true two-plane breaker, with both sweep and drop, and when it’s paired with triple-digit velocity, it becomes a nasty combination for opposing hitters.
The bigger question is what Susana becomes at the big-league level. A bullpen role would fit the stuff, and there’s a resemblance there to Dodgers reliever Edgardo Henriquez. Like Susana, Henriquez throws two fastballs in the triple digits and pairs them with a nasty breaking ball.
Still, there’s also a path for Susana to start. His command has never been exceptional, but Fangraphs pointed out that his low-effort delivery should help him throw strikes as he develops. There’s also room to expand the arsenal.
One pitch that stands out as a possible fit is the “splinker” used by Jhoan Duran and Paul Skenes, a hard pitch that sits between a sinker and a splitter. Given what this new regime has done with other pitchers, it would not be a surprise to see them tinker with Susana’s mix this offseason.
For now, though, the early AFL returns have been encouraging. Susana’s velocity is still elite, his strike throwing has looked solid in a small sample, and he’s given the Nationals plenty to watch as the Fall League rolls on.
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Susanas two starts were enough to earn attention across the circuit, and the early returns only add to the appeal for a Nationals club always looking for the next wave of pitching help. The raw stuff has long been the selling point, but outings like these are the kind that make the long-term picture feel a little closer, even if the final ceiling remains something fans are still waiting to fully see. [Read more 🡒]
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The harder decision now comes with Dylan Crews, whose path has not been nearly as smooth as the Nationals hoped when they brought him in as a former top pick. His struggle to lock down a consistent starting job is one of the more notable questions facing the roster heading into next season, and it comes as Washington is already trying to reshape a bullpen that was one of the leagues most troubled units and will need major attention this winter. [Read more 🡒]