CJ Abrams was never supposed to become this kind of home run hitter.
Back in the 2019 MLB Draft, the buzz around him was all about the bat-to-ball skills, the speed and the upside. MLB Pipeline had him as the 4th overall prospect in that class, but the power projection was modest: 10 to 15 home runs, maybe, if everything broke right. He went 6th overall to the Padres, later landed with the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, and now he’s looking like a completely different kind of hitter than the one scouts first drew up.
This season, Abrams has turned into a real threat to leave the yard. He’s already launched 31 home runs, even with a slump down the stretch, and no shortstop has hit more.
That’s a massive leap from the slim, wiry prospect who once carried a 40 grade power label. He’s filled out some, sure, but he still doesn’t look like the kind of player who should be posting 30-homer seasons.
The key is how he’s doing it. Abrams is leaning hard into a pull-heavy approach, and it’s paying off.
He’s pulling the ball in the air at a 24.7% clip this year, a career high and well above league average. His swing is built to do damage to the pull side, and that helps explain why he can outproduce what the raw exit velocities might suggest.
What makes this development stand out is that the power growth didn’t come out of nowhere. As Abrams got closer to the majors, evaluators started to warm up to the idea that there was more pop in there than originally believed.
Baseball America saw a possible 20-homer bat. MLB Pipeline later said he had at least average power.
For a while, that looked pretty accurate - he hit 18 homers in 2023, 20 in 2024 and 19 in 2025.
Then he took another jump. Thirty-one homers changes the conversation.
Abrams is no longer just a dynamic middle infielder with some power; he’s become one of the better power bats at his position. And he’s still only 25.
That matters because the ceiling keeps getting higher if he can put together stronger finishes to seasons. The production is already loud, but there’s room for even more. A 35- to 40-homer future is now at least in the conversation.
The Nationals also have a decision to make. Abrams is getting closer to free agency and has just two years of team control left. That puts Washington in a real spot this offseason: trade him, extend him, or simply ride it out and see what happens over the next two years.
There’s at least some reason to think an extension could be on the table. The Nationals recently extended Cade Cavalli, Abrams is not a Boras client, and that could make talks easier. Still, there has not been much movement on that front yet, according to the report.
Whatever comes next, this much is clear: 30/30 players do not grow on trees. Abrams is only the second National to do it, joining Alfonso Soriano, who reached that mark 20 years ago. That alone puts him in rare company.
He may not have looked like this kind of player when he entered the league, but that’s the fun of it. Abrams was supposed to be good. He has become something more surprising than that - a shortstop who can change a game with one swing.
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Astros Just Lost A Key Voice In A Critical Talent Pipeline
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Rodgers has been running that part of the Astros operation, and Houstons track record in that space has made his role one worth watching. His work has helped the Astros land several of their top prospects, giving Washington a potential boost not just in personnel but in the kind of eye for talent that can change a system over time. [Read more 🡒]
James Woods Late-Season Slide Is Raising A Bigger Nationals Concern
James Woods bat has gone quiet at exactly the wrong time for a Nationals lineup that has leaned on his power for much of the season. Since the All-Star break, the slug has faded, his production has dipped and the burst that made him such a force in the first half has not carried over into the stretch run. A month lost to an oblique injury only complicated the picture, interrupting a season that had already started to feel uneven.
James Woods late-season slide also comes with a broader concern for Washington, because this is not the first time his second half has looked different from his first. The drop-off last year followed a similar pattern, and the frustration around his recent play has gone beyond the box score. For a club trying to see what kind of cornerstone it has in him, the issue is no longer just whether the power returns, but whether the consistency and urgency do too. [Read more 🡒]