Andrew Alvarez didn’t exactly enter the season with his name circled as a rotation pillar for the Washington Nationals. By the time it ended, though, he had worked his way into that conversation and then some.
That’s the kind of leap that reshapes a staff. Washington’s pitching overall had its share of rough patches, but Alvarez gave the Nationals one of their best success stories of the year. He was one of the few arms who consistently made the season look a little less bleak.
The surprise factor was real, but the breakout wasn’t built out of thin air. Alvarez had already flashed something at the end of last season, when he made five starts and turned in a 2.31 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Still, he was a 26-year-old rookie with modest Triple-A numbers and no real prospect buzz, so it was easy to wonder if that stretch was just a nice little run.
Instead, he backed it up in 2026.
Over the full season, the left-hander put together a 3.43 ERA with 114 strikeouts across 112.2 innings. He was even better as the year wore on, posting a 2.15 ERA after his recall following the deadline and before what the piece calls his unfortunate last start of the season. That kind of finish doesn’t happen by accident.
Alvarez’s success starts with a clear plan. He lives on the edges, avoids the middle of the plate and forces hitters to beat him on his terms.
That approach comes with some risk - his walk rate sat at 10.8% - but it also kept him from getting squared up. He finished with a 6.2% barrel rate and a 49.8% ground-ball rate, both strong marks that helped him surrender just seven home runs in 112.2 innings.
That home-run prevention mattered. His 1.30 WHIP is ordinary, but when the ball stays in the yard, the damage never gets too big.
And Alvarez isn’t merely surviving out there. He missed bats at a strong clip, striking out more than a batter per inning.
The engine behind that was his curveball, the pitch he leaned on when he needed an out. Of his 114 strikeouts, 71 came on the curve.
It’s a pitch that stands out for its shape and its velocity. Alvarez sits around 92 MPH overall, but the curveball comes in at roughly 83 MPH, and it has been seen as high as 86.
Even with that added velocity, he doesn’t lose the movement that makes it so effective. In fact, the pitch gets more drop than average.
Usually, the slower 12-6 curves are the ones with the most dive. Alvarez has found a way to get that kind of action while throwing harder.
Naturally, it became his most-used pitch. Opponents hit only .178 against it and managed just one homer. The rest of his mix is usable and works in sequence, but the curveball is the real separator.
The underlying numbers back up the surface results, too. Alvarez finished with a 3.32 FIP and a 3.67 xFIP, which makes the season look far less like a fluke than a lucky run. There has been plenty of talk around Jake Bennett, but Alvarez was right there with him, and maybe even a bit better.
That performance should leave him in line for a rotation job. With Alvarez, Cavalli and Connelly Early, the Nationals suddenly have a pretty solid top three. The next move, ideally, is adding an established veteran and letting the other arms battle it out for the fifth spot.
Alvarez isn’t finished, either. At season’s end, he said he wants to add some velocity this offseason, believing it would help him command his fastball and make life easier overall.
He also showed progress in another important area: working deeper into games. That came from earning more trust from the coaching staff and becoming more efficient. If that trend sticks, Alvarez looks like the kind of starter who can give the Nationals five innings and often more.
For a former 12th-round pick with no prospect pedigree, this was a major year. He had to claw his way into the picture, and that’s exactly what he did. Now he heads into 2027 as a real part of the Nationals’ rotation plans.
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