Andrew Alvarez is making the Nationals take a harder look at what a successful pitcher can look like.
He didn’t come out of nowhere. At the end of last season, he gave Washington five solid starts, leaning on a breaking-ball-heavy approach that worked even if he wasn’t working deep into games.
But there was still plenty of skepticism around the left-hander. With a fastball that averaged 91 and only middling results at Triple-A, it was fair to wonder whether that stretch was a blip.
This year, Alvarez has kept answering that question. One outing at a time, he’s showing the Nats that the results are real.
He still isn’t pitching deep into games, but he’s doing exactly what the team needs: getting outs. Across 41.1 innings in 11 appearances and five starts, the 27-year-old southpaw owns a 3.05 ERA and a 2.65 FIP.
His fastball has ticked up into the 92-93 range, and his breaking stuff remains as sharp as ever.
What really jumps off the page is how often he misses bats without overpowering anyone. Alvarez has 48 strikeouts in 41.1 innings and is striking out 27.6% of hitters, tying him with Braxton Ashcraft and Reid Detmers, two breakout arms with much more velocity.
The best part of his game is what happens when he gets to two strikes. He has a knack for finishing hitters that a lot of arms on this staff simply don’t have.
That finishing pitch is the curveball, and it’s the centerpiece of everything he does. It’s firm, sharp, and commanded well.
Stuff+ loves it. So do the hitters, at least in the worst way possible for them: batters are hitting .179 against the pitch with a 35.1% whiff rate.
Of Alvarez’s 48 strikeouts, 30 have come on the curveball. It’s no surprise that it’s also his most-used offering.
The curveball stands out even more because of how unusual it is. At 83 mph, it comes in much harder than the average 80 mph left-handed curve.
Usually, extra velocity on a curve means giving up some movement. That hasn’t happened here.
Alvarez’s hook actually gets more drop and break than the average curveball, which is why it has produced such strong results.
The slider gives him another weapon in the same lane. He throws it 26.3% of the time, only slightly less than the curve, and it comes in around the same speed.
On a radar gun, the two pitches could be mistaken for each other. On the pitch plot, they separate cleanly.
That gives Alvarez two breaking balls with distinct movement profiles at nearly the same velocity, a rare setup.
The slider has actually generated a higher whiff rate than the curve, but it has also been hit harder and has produced only 11 strikeouts. Still, the overall shape of his arsenal is obvious: Alvarez is built around breaking balls, and he knows it. He throws either the curve or the slider 54.7% of the time.
His fastballs are there to support the package, not drive it. Batters are hitting over .300 against both his four-seamer and sinker, but those pitches still matter because they keep hitters honest and help him generate ground balls. So far this season, Alvarez has an elite 55% ground ball rate.
There’s more to his success than just spin, too. Even if he’ll issue some walks, his command has been solid.
He does a good job getting his curveball to or below the bottom of the zone, elevating his four-seamer to the top, and sinking his sinker down and in to lefties. That’s reflected in his 106 location+ grade, which sits above average.
The fastball will always put a cap on how far this can go, and Alvarez probably isn’t a pitcher you want seeing the same lineup three times. But he’s been a valuable piece for Washington, and there’s a real case that he can keep thriving in a Brad Lord type role.
The Nationals even used him alongside Lord yesterday, which is an intriguing idea. The two of them could combine for seven innings and essentially give a team a strong starter in the aggregate. Alvarez may not have the loud velocity teams love to chase, but he’s proving that his spin-heavy style is no fluke.
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There is also a bit of franchise history tucked into the transaction. The deal with Baltimore was the first trade between the clubs since the Nationals moved from Montreal to Washington in 2005, a reminder that even neighboring teams can go years without matching up in the transaction market. For Washington, the bigger question now is whether Nicolas can turn the raw stuff that keeps him interesting into something more reliable once he settles in with Rochester. [Read more 🡒]
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Detmers has put together a 3.88 ERA this season and has already worked himself into the conversation as a potential frontline starter. His June run only helped that case, and for a Nationals club that has been tied to the same pitching conversation as several others, the question is less about whether the fit makes sense and more about how aggressive the front office wants to get if the asking price starts climbing. [Read more 🡒]
Nationals May Have An Unusual Bullpen Option Fans Didn't See Coming
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For Washington, the appeal goes beyond the backstory. Mejias metrics have drawn attention, and the organization has reason to keep watching closely as it looks for help on the mound. If the bullpen continues to wobble, his name could move from curiosity to real possibility sooner rather than later. [Read more 🡒]