Week 4 was a strange one, and I still managed to go 3-3 against the spread. One of those losses was the kind that sticks with you: I took Maryland +1.5 at home against UCLA because the Bruins were traveling cross-country and kicking off at an awkward time.
None of that mattered. UCLA still won by 51 points.
So with a fresh slate in front of me, I’m hoping to dodge any more 50-point disasters and maybe sneak above .500 this week.
Washington at USC (-9.5)
There’s clearly still some faith out there that Washington has another level to find. The problem is the Huskies are 0-4 ATS because they simply haven’t been putting up enough points to cash against numbers that have been generous to them all season.
This matchup feels like more of the same. Washington is going to need a real scoring jump to stay inside single digits against one of the country’s better offenses.
You can make a case for USC if you want to nitpick. The receiver group isn’t fully healthy, and that showed up in Jayden Maiava’s more ordinary day against Oregon.
The Trojans’ defense has also been shaky, giving up 30-plus to Rutgers, Louisiana, and Oregon, with most of that coming without Dante Moore. Still, I don’t think USC’s defense is going to be any worse than Washington State or Utah State, and both of those teams gave Washington plenty of trouble.
There’s a path for the Huskies if Jedd Fisch dials up 10 more designed QB runs for Demond Williams, or if Williams finally taps into the higher gear that has been missing. Those changes could keep Washington within 10. But I haven’t seen anything this season to make me think that’s coming.
USC 33, Washington 17
Penn State at Northwestern (+2.5)
Northwestern’s performance at Indiana, where it stayed within six points on the road, was one of the better showings by a Big Ten team so far this season. If that happened in the SEC, it probably would’ve been enough to crack the top 20.
Penn State, meanwhile, ran into its first real bump of the Matt Campbell era with a home loss to Wisconsin. This one also doubles as the opening of Northwestern’s Ryan Field, which adds another layer to the matchup.
The pick here really comes down to whether last week is the start of something or just a snapshot that doesn’t change the bigger picture. I’m leaning toward the bigger sample.
Penn State 27, Northwestern 23
Michigan at Minnesota (+5.5)
This is another game featuring two teams coming off results nobody really saw coming. Michigan fell at home to Iowa, and Minnesota… well, I can’t even quite remember what Minnesota did last week.
Oddly enough, this is the second time the Wolverines have been favored by 5.5 this season, after having the same spread against Oklahoma. Michigan will want to lean on the run game, and Minnesota has mostly been solid against the run in three of four games. The exception came against Mississippi State, when the Golden Gophers got pushed around on the ground.
I’m not exactly sold on Michigan, but the best argument for Minnesota is that win over Washington, and that result may not mean all that much either.
Michigan 23, Minnesota 16
Ohio State at Iowa
Ohio State has been dominant outside of the tight road loss to Texas, but this is the kind of game that should tell us something. Iowa doesn’t score much, but the Hawkeyes drag games into the mud. Jeremiah Smith may be the best player in the country, yet Iowa’s secondary is built to limit explosive plays.
I think Julian Sayin will do enough to give Ohio State a cushion, but Iowa’s pace should keep this one from getting out of hand.
Ohio State 30, Iowa 17
Michigan State at Wisconsin (-10.5)
For once, Wisconsin fans have reason to feel good. The Badgers were blown out by Notre Dame to start the year, but they’ve now won three in a row, capped by last week’s upset of Penn State.
Michigan State, on the other hand, has looked overmatched against P4 competition and doesn’t have the sort of offense that let Notre Dame blitz Wisconsin early in the season.
The question is whether Wisconsin has enough explosiveness to win by more than 10. After last week’s peak, I’m selling high.
Wisconsin 28, Michigan State 20
Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5)
Maryland’s showing last week was as bad as it gets. It was so ugly that it somehow took some of the attention off Washington’s own bad day at home.
Nebraska enters at 4-0 and still hasn’t really been tested, with Michigan State its only P4 opponent so far. Just like I’m fading Wisconsin after its big moment, I’m taking the points with Maryland here after last week’s nightmare. Maybe lightning strikes twice.
In Other News...
Washington Heads To USC With One Big Break On Defense
Washingtons trip to USC picked up a little more defensive intrigue this week, and not because of anything the Huskies did on the field. The Trojans will be without linebacker Desman Stephens after he was suspended for one game following the illegal late hit that got him ejected against Oregon, a play that drew plenty of attention and forced USC to address both discipline and player safety.
For Washington, the timing matters because the Huskies are also expecting key defenders back from injury as they head into a tricky road matchup. USC coach Lincoln Riley said the suspension was necessary and stressed the programs support for Oregon quarterback Dante Moore as he recovers, but the bigger ripple for Saturday is that Washington will not have to prepare for Stephens on the other side of the ball. [Read more 🡒]
Washingtons Run Game Has Turned Into A Real Early Problem
Washingtons rushing game has been one of the early trouble spots of the season, and it has shown up in a hurry. Through four weeks, the Huskies sit near the bottom of the Big Ten in rushing yards per game, a sign that the ground attack has not yet found any rhythm as the league schedule starts to tighten.
The issues have been compounded by a thin backfield, with injuries slicing into the group Washington expected to lean on. Jordan Washington, Quaid Carr, Jayden Limar and Julian McMahan have all been part of the setback, leaving Brian Bonner and Trey Cooley to handle most of the load while Ansu Sanoe and Ryken Moon fill in around them. The result is a rotation still trying to settle, and the bigger concern is whether the Huskies can stabilize it before the absence list gets any longer. [Read more 🡒]
USC Suddenly Has A Linebacker Problem Heading Into Washington
USCs defense will look different when Washington comes to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, and not just because of the usual late-season turnover. The Trojans are already managing a linebacker shuffle after Desman Stephens II was sidelined, leaving a vacancy in the middle of a defense that has to deal with a Huskies offense built around quarterback Demon Williams Jr. and his ability to threaten teams as a runner and a passer.
TaMere Robinson is the veteran now asked to step into the spot and steady things for USC, bringing experience from his time at Penn State into a game that figures to test his range and discipline. For Washington, it adds another wrinkle to a matchup that already had enough intrigue, because the Huskies may have found one more area where they can press an opponent that suddenly has to adjust on the fly. [Read more 🡒]