Last week was chaos for anyone trying to make sense of the Big Ten slate. Picks went sideways, projections got wrecked, and even the teams that were supposed to look steady spent the weekend making everybody sweat.
I finished 4-2, though the 2-4 ATS mark tells the fuller story. These lines come from the FanDuel Sports Book.
The number that jumps off the board first is Washington laying 42.5 against Eastern Washington, and that’s just too rich for me. The Huskies haven’t exactly looked like an offense ready to pile up seven touchdowns on command, even if this isn’t an FCS mismatch on paper. Washington should have clear physical edges, but the last two weeks didn’t show anything close to the kind of attacking consistency that makes a spread this huge feel safe.
Eastern Washington does have a quarterback who has been productive in Nate Bell, who is throwing for 260 yards per game. But the Eagles have had trouble in the trenches, and that’s where Washington should be able to tilt the game. Eastern is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry against three FCS opponents, and the Huskies’ defensive front has been excellent against stronger competition.
The bigger issue for Washington is whether its own offense can start looking like itself again. The blocking has been shaky, and the skill-position room keeps getting thinner.
Rashid Williams is now on the list of walking wounded along with Christian Moss, Jordan Washington, Jayden Limar, and Quaid Carr. Demond Williams has been up and down, but I do think this is the kind of matchup where Washington takes a step forward.
I just don’t see enough firepower to get to 42.5.
Washington 35 - Eastern Washington 10
USC is another team I’m not eager to lay a giant number with, even after how well the Trojans have started. Rutgers has some real obstacles here, but the setup gives the home team a few reasons to hang around. USC is going on the road for the first time, making a cross-country trip, and the 12:30 PT kickoff is a tough early start for the Trojans.
Rutgers hasn’t been able to run the ball the way it wants, and that has to improve if it’s going to control anything in this game. The defense also hasn’t held up well in losses to UMass and BC. Even so, USC should be able to win this game without needing to fully clear 23.5.
USC 37 - Rutgers 17
Virginia Tech and Maryland is one of those games where the spread feels like it’s leaning on reputation more than proof. Neither team has really faced the kind of opponent that settles much of anything.
Maryland has at least had a bit more stability with Malik Washington at quarterback and Mike Locksley as the head coach. James Franklin has not traveled outside of Blacksburg yet with the Hokies.
That said, this feels like a game Virginia Tech may need a little more. The Hokies are chasing early momentum, while the expectations on Maryland are not nearly as intense. That edge matters.
Virginia Tech 30 - Maryland 28
Colorado at Northwestern has weather written all over it, and that matters here. Julian Lewis has been solid for the Buffs, but the conditions look rough, and Colorado has also dealt with penalties and special teams issues. At home, in bad weather, Northwestern’s run-first approach is the side I’d rather trust.
Northwestern 27 - Colorado 17
Michigan State’s trip to Notre Dame is the kind of test that exposes how far a rebuild has come. The Pat Fitzgerald era has opened with promise in East Lansing, but this is a different animal than beating Eastern Michigan. Notre Dame’s offense is ranked No. 1 in the country by SP+, and CJ Carr has given the Irish explosiveness through the air even as they’ve leaned more on the run.
The spread is hefty at 29.5, but Notre Dame already handled a pretty similar Wisconsin team by 28 on a neutral field. That makes the number a little more believable.
Notre Dame 45 - Michigan St 14
The final game on the board is UCLA against Purdue, and the two-touchdown spread says a lot about where these programs are right now. Bob Chesney’s UCLA team has run the ball extremely well through two games, and the win over Cal stood out.
Purdue, meanwhile, showed some life in an overtime loss to Boston College, but the skid against P4 opponents is still there. I’m not ready to think that ends this week.
In Other News...
Washington May Finally Get The O-Line Boost It Desperately Needs
Washingtons offensive line has spent the early part of the season trying to find its footing without one of its most experienced pieces. Landen Hatchett, a fourth-year center, has been working back from a broken wrist that sidelined him since last season, and his absence has shown up in the middle of the line, where Kolt Dieterich has been starting while the Huskies have dealt with some early issues up front.
The good news is that help may be close. In a news conference, Jedd Fisch said Hatchett is expected to be back for the Big Ten opener against Minnesota on Sept. 26, giving Washington a chance to stabilize the unit before conference play really gets going. For a line that has already been asked to absorb a lot of change, getting a veteran center back in the fold could be a meaningful step, even if the bigger question is how quickly the whole group can settle in once he returns. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Gets A Timely Offensive Boost Before Eastern Washington
Washingtons final nonconference game of the regular season arrives with a small but meaningful lift on offense. Ahead of the matchup with Eastern Washington, wide receiver Rashid Williams is back in the mix after missing time, giving the Huskies another option as they try to keep the passing game moving in the right direction before Big Ten play settles in for the long haul.
Williams had been viewed as a week-to-week case after getting hurt early in the Utah State game, but Jedd Fisch said a strong week of practice earned him clearance to play. The sophomore has only a modest body of work this season, with 4 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown, but for a Washington offense that can use reliable depth at receiver, getting him back now is a timely bit of business. [Read more 🡒]
Washington's 2-0 Start Is Hiding A Bigger Problem
Washington is 2-0 to start the 2026 season, but the early results have done little to quiet the unease around how the Huskies are actually playing. Heavy favorites in both of their first two games, they still had to sweat out Washington State and Utah State, leaving the kind of narrow wins that can mask bigger issues when the record looks cleaner than the performance.
Demond Williams and the offense have not yet given the program much separation, and the run game has lagged enough to raise questions about how sustainable this start really is. Eastern Washington is next on the schedule, but the larger concern is what comes after that, when conference play tightens and Washington has to show it can do more than survive the opening stretch. [Read more 🡒]