It took until Week 8 to finally get an ATS push, and it came in the weirdest possible way: overtime in Indiana’s 13-6 win over Michigan, where the late drama landed right on the Indiana -7 number. That result, folded into a 2-3-1 week, leaves the season line sitting just over .500 at 24-23-1 ATS and 33-15 SU.
Washington at Nebraska (-7.5)
This was supposed to be one of the big games on the schedule before the season started, but with both teams sitting at 4-3, it hasn’t played out that way. A lot of the same issues that have dragged Washington down all year are still hanging over this one.
Demond Williams may or may not be available at quarterback after Elijah Brown gave the offense a jolt in his place. Whoever gets the start will have to deal with a Nebraska defense allowing only 15.4 points per game and ranking first in the country in third-down defense.
The quarterback situation gets even messier with Landen Hatchett out for the rest of the year, which forces another shuffle along an already scrambled offensive line. Washington’s path depends on its defense finding a way to bottle up Anthony Colandrea and Kwazi Gilmer. The Huskies have struggled when mobile quarterbacks are part of the equation, and if Colandrea keeps extending plays, Nebraska could string together longer drives.
Still, Nebraska’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up either. The Cornhuskers lost their last two games to Oregon and Indiana, scoring 14 and 17 points. That’s enough to make me think Washington can hang around, but not enough to convince me the Huskies can get Nebraska off schedule enough to flip the game.
Nebraska 28 - Washington 20
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3.5)
Wisconsin is 5-2, but the offense hasn’t done much to scare anybody. The Badgers are averaging 330 yards per game, and that feels like a number that has to climb if they’re going to keep pace with Iowa’s defense.
As usual, the Hawkeyes should lean on the run game with Kamari Moulton, and Kinnick Stadium matters here. I trust Iowa’s offense a little more, and that’s the difference.
Iowa 20 - Wisconsin 14
Minnesota at Indiana (-20.5)
Minnesota remains one of the most volatile teams in the league. The Gophers have wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Washington, but they’ve also been blown out by Mississippi St and Purdue.
Indiana has been steadier in conference play, even if “steady” has come with plenty of one-possession games. The Hoosiers have played four such games in their last five, including the loss to Ohio St and last week’s overtime win against Michigan.
If Minnesota can at least create some kind of rushing threat, this one should stay closer than the spread suggests. Indiana still looks like the better team, but the gap may not be as wide as the number says.
Indiana 31 - Minnesota 17
Northwestern at Oregon (-3.5)
This one mirrors the Wisconsin-Iowa matchup in one key way: a ranked road team is getting more than a field goal against an unranked host. Oregon announced that Dante Moore is out for the year, and most of the receiving group is expected back after last week’s suspensions. Even so, the Ducks haven’t topped 20 points in a month.
The talent edge probably belongs to Oregon, but Northwestern has been the more reliable team over the course of the season and holds a major edge in turnover differential. Until Oregon shows it can actually play better, there’s no reason to hand them the benefit of the doubt.
Northwestern 27 - Iowa 24
Purdue at Penn St (-7.5)
Penn St comes in on a four-game losing streak and a bye week, which is about as badly as a season can be teetering at this point. Purdue has already shown it can make a struggling offense look dangerous, so the Boilermakers have at least some chance to keep this one tight. Fame Ijeboi gives them a solid runner who can help shorten the game.
That said, I’m not sure Purdue can really slow Penn St down, and I’m more willing to believe the Nittany Lions have another level they can still reach. Purdue may have already played its best football.
Ohio St at USC (+4.5)
USC entered last week with a respectable 6-1 record, even if the fan base had spent much of the season frustrated with the team. The loss to Wisconsin changed the tone in a hurry and pushed the Trojans back into a hole.
Ohio St comes off a bye after being rock-solid since losing its opener to Texas. The absence of Julian Sayin opens the door a bit, but Jeremiah Smith makes life easier for whoever is under center. And the USC defense doesn’t look good enough to take advantage of that quarterback change anyway.
In Other News...
Washington Faces Two Offensive Concerns With Nebraska Up Next
Washingtons offense heads into the Nebraska game with a couple of obvious concerns, and both trace back to the same place the Huskies would rather not spend much time talking about: stability. Christian Caple recently pointed to a familiar Jedd Fisch storyline from Arizona, where a change at quarterback helped settle a team down and lift its play, as a reminder that a backup can sometimes change the tone of an offense. For Washington, though, the bigger-picture issue may be the line in front of the quarterback, where injuries have already forced the unit to keep adjusting.
The Huskies have had to manage that front through a difficult stretch, and the depth chart does not look as comfortable as it did earlier in the season. Landen Hatchetts season-ending neck injury only sharpened the concern about how much room there is for error, especially with Nebraska coming in under Matt Rhule and the game drawing extra attention in preview talk around both programs. Washington still has plenty to play for, but this matchup feels like one where the offensive answers will matter as much as the opponent. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Finally Gets A Key Transfer Back For The Opener
Ryan Beasley should be back in the mix for Washington when the regular season begins, a welcome development for a backcourt that has been waiting to see what the fourth-year point guard can add. The transfer from San Francisco was expected to be a key piece for Danny Sprinkles group, but a concussion kept him out of both exhibition games against Boise State and Washington State while the Huskies tried to sort through their preseason rotation.
Sprinkle said Beasley is set to practice and start ramping up for the opener, giving him a few days to get his legs back under him before the games count. For Washington, the timing matters as much as the return itself, since Beasleys presence should help stabilize the offense and give the Huskies another experienced option in a guard room that was missing one of its most anticipated newcomers in October. [Read more 🡒]
Nebraska Faces A Familiar Problem In A Game It Can't Waste
A trip to Memorial Stadium after a bye week puts Washington in a spot where the Huskies know exactly what kind of afternoon they may be walking into. Nebraska is treating the Blackout game as a chance to reset its season in the final month, and the Cornhuskers are trying to clean up two of the issues that have nagged them most of the year: a running game that needs more consistency and defensive breakdowns that have too often shown up late.
For Washington, the quarterback picture adds another layer to a road game already heavy on noise and urgency. The Huskies are working through uncertainty under center, and that kind of situation tends to shape everything from play-calling to tempo when a team is trying to survive a difficult setting. Nebraska would love nothing more than to make this a game where the pressure keeps building, but Washington still has enough around it to make the matchup feel like more than a simple tune-up for the home team. [Read more 🡒]