Conference play is here, and the first batch of Big Ten matchups brings a little bit of everything: a tricky road spot, a classic Ferentz-style grinder, a couple of teams trying to prove their early results were real, and one massive showdown out West that might be the loudest scoreboard watch of the week.
The non-conference run is already in the books, and the early read on the league hasn’t exactly been subtle. Northwestern and UCLA have boosted their standing.
Washington and Oregon, on the other hand, have not lived up to the expectations that followed them into September. Now the real test starts, and the question is simple: which of those trends actually holds up once league games begin?
Washington opens conference play at home against Minnesota, and the Huskies still have the same two issues hanging over them: health and offense. Last week’s performance against Eastern Washington was cleaner, which at least pointed in the right direction.
The backfield remains banged up, but Rashid Williams’ quick recovery and the slow return of Landen Hatchett at center should help stabilize things a bit. Minnesota comes in with its own uncertainty.
The Gophers rolled Eastern Illinois and Akron, then looked completely out of their depth against Mississippi St. PJ Fleck wants to lean on the run game, but an injury to Darius Taylor has limited that plan, and his status this week is in question.
Drake Lindsey has kept things moving with a short passing game, but without much quarterback mobility to lean on, Washington should be in position to contain Minnesota and maybe force a turnover or two.
The bigger issue for Washington is still whether it can move the ball against a Power 4 defense. Minnesota had trouble when Mississippi St pushed the tempo, so it will be interesting to see whether UW tries to speed things up and throw the Gophers off rhythm.
DE Anthony Smith entered the season with the look of one of the league’s best defenders, even if he hasn’t made a major impact yet. Kodi Greene will have his toughest assignment so far trying to handle him.
Minnesota’s tackling has also been shaky, which could open the door for more screens and swing passes from the Huskies as a stand-in for the run game. If Washington finishes drives, it can get its first ATS win of the year.
Northwestern’s trip to Indiana looks much more straightforward on paper, but the Wildcats have already shown they’re not just along for the ride this season. Wins over Colorado and South Dakota St have come with a better defense and a more effective run game than most expected.
Indiana, meanwhile, had a major question to answer about Josh Hoover stepping in after Fernando Mendoza, and so far the answer has been a clean yes. Hoover has been sharp, with 10 TD and 0 Int, and Indiana under Cignetti has not been the kind of team that piles on once a game gets out of hand.
Northwestern should have enough to keep this one from turning into a track meet.
UCLA’s trip to Maryland is the one that feels most vulnerable to the weirdness of travel and timing. Bob Chesney has the Bruins rolling after convincing wins over Cal and Purdue, but flying 2300 miles and dealing with an early kickoff in a hostile stadium is a different kind of challenge.
Maryland wasn’t crisp against Virginia Tech last week, though Malik Washington has generally been steady. The matchup itself looks close enough.
On a neutral field, UCLA would get the nod. In this spot, with the road trip and kickoff situation baked in, Maryland becomes the more appealing side.
Iowa and Michigan bring the kind of game that practically writes its own script. If there’s a league version of the classic 16-13 Iowa-Iowa St feel, this is it.
The expectation is that it comes down to a field goal, which makes the current line look a little generous. Michigan’s win over Oklahoma was supposed to calm things down after the non-win against Western Michigan, but there’s still plenty of reason to ask how good Oklahoma actually is.
Even so, the safer play is to take the points in a game that figures to stay tight from start to finish.
Penn St gets Wisconsin in a matchup that looks much less complicated. Both teams are 5-0 and neither has been seriously challenged by MAC or FCS opponents, but Wisconsin’s loss to Notre Dame stands out as the major separator.
The underlying play-by-play data has been more encouraging for Penn St, and the Nittany Lions have the kind of profile that travels well: they can run, and they can defend. Wisconsin should have a hard time consistently moving the ball, and Penn St looks like the side most likely to cover comfortably.
Then comes the biggest number on the board: Oregon against USC, with an Over/Under of 62.5, the highest total anywhere in the country this week. Oregon has been a little shaky defensively after losing coordinators on both sides of the ball, while Jayden Maiava has been lighting up the USC offense with vintage Lincoln Riley numbers.
The problem for USC is that its defense does not look CFP-worthy, and Oregon’s offense has not been the issue. The winner is harder to sort out than the scoring environment, so the total may be the clearest part of the bet.
On the side, it’s a split-the-difference kind of game.
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