Washington is favored over a ranked Iowa team, and that alone makes this one feel a little off-kilter. Still, there are reasons the number makes some sense.
Iowa is coming across the country on a short week after playing Ohio St., and the Hawkeyes may be without their quarterback, whose availability “do not sound too optimistic.” Washington also showed some life against USC, enough to suggest the offense might be inching toward something more functional.
Jedd Fisch’s comments about getting John Mills more work at LT and giving Kodi Greene more reps at guard point to a staff that at least sees the same issues everyone else does.
But backing the Huskies means believing Demond Williams can navigate a very large, very physical Iowa front. That’s not a small ask.
His pocket presence has been shaky even against much weaker competition, and Washington’s modest run game came against a USC defense that was easy to move on. At the same time, Iowa’s quarterback situation is not exactly a selling point either, and as one note puts it, “when was the last time anyone picked Iowa based on QB production?”
The hope is that Washington’s offense can keep improving, but doing it fast enough to handle this defense is another matter.
Raymond Lucas Jr. isn’t convinced by much of anything here, though he does think the venue could matter less than usual. Husky Stadium might not be packed for a Friday night kickoff, whether that’s because of the slow start or because of rush hour.
Even so, he sees a path for Washington because Iowa’s offense will be led by its backup quarterback, and the Hawkeyes’ attack has not been enough to seriously threaten the Huskies. The problem, of course, is that Washington’s offense has not exactly been threatening Power Five opponents either.
Still, he expects Demond Williams to help get UW back in the win column in a game that could be ugly but ends with a Husky victory.
Max Vrooman started out baffled by Washington being favored after the USC game, but he’s come around on the Huskies’ chances. What changed his mind was a deeper look at Iowa’s rushing numbers.
Yes, all four of Iowa’s lead backs are averaging at least 6 yards per carry for the season, but the broader picture is less intimidating. The Hawkeyes piled up 400-plus yards at about 10 yards per carry against an FCS opponent at home, while against the three Power Conference teams they’ve faced, they’ve combined for just 3.1 yards per carry.
That stretch includes Michigan and OSU, and Iowa State also held firm on the ground. Add in a backup quarterback who lost his job to a starter who also isn’t good, and Iowa’s offense starts to look a lot less like an Iowa offense.
Even so, Vrooman points out the usual trap with Iowa: the defense drags games into the mud, and the special teams can tilt things in a hurry. That’s where Washington has to be careful.
Unless Landen Hatchett returns from injury and looks like an all B1G center right away, it’s hard to picture the Huskies putting up much. If Demond Williams can avoid the kind of turnovers that turn into Iowa defensive touchdowns or short fields in the red zone, then Washington’s chances improve quickly.
That “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but it may be the whole game.
The picks reflect just how tight this feels. Andrew Berg has Iowa 21, Washington 17.
Raymond Lucas Jr. has Washington 20, Iowa 10. Max Vrooman sees it even tighter: Washington 14, Iowa 13.
In Other News...
Washington Just Caught A Huge Break In A Pivotal Big Ten Test
Washingtons Big Ten trip to Iowa just got a lot more interesting, and a little more manageable. The Hawkeyes are preparing to go without starting quarterback Hank Brown, who is dealing with an upper-body injury, leaving a key conference matchup in the hands of a much less tested option. For a Huskies team trying to keep its own momentum rolling, any uncertainty at quarterback for the opponent is worth watching closely.
Jeremy Hecklinski is lined up to take over for Iowa, and the situation comes with plenty of stakes on both sides. He has thrown just 32 passes this season, with one touchdown and one interception, while Iowa needs a win to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive. It sets up a game with a very different feel than it had earlier in the week, even if Brown could still be available in an emergency. [Read more 🡒]
Demond Williams Jr. Is Earning National Buzz Amid Washington's Bigger Problem
Demond Williams Jr. keeps drawing more attention beyond Montlake, and this week the Washington quarterback landed among the final 15 finalists for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award. It is the kind of recognition that reflects more than just box-score production, since the honor also takes into account character and academic performance along with what happens between the lines.
For Washington, the buzz around Williams only adds another layer to a season in which the quarterback has already given the offense some real stability. The third-year signal-caller has completed 67.5% of his passes for 1,327 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and his rise is becoming one of the more encouraging storylines around a program still searching for a bigger answer elsewhere. [Read more 🡒]