It was a rough stretch last week, and the picks showed it. A 2-4 ATS mark dragged the record down to 29-30-1 ATS, even if the late-week read on Washington would have changed with the offensive line injury news.
The Huskies’ loss still came down in part to defensive breakdowns in the first half, while Oregon turned in a much stronger showing against Ohio St than expected after looking shaky against lesser competition. So the goal this week is simple: get back above .500.
Washington heads to Michigan St as a 3.5-point underdog in a game that feels like one of the last real chances for the Huskies to reach bowl eligibility. The preseason win total of 7.5 looked too low then, and now Washington is fighting just to get to six with Indiana and Oregon still waiting.
Michigan State has also come up short of expectations in Pat Fitzgerald’s first season, though the upset of dysfunctional Michigan has nudged the Spartans back in a better direction. This is still a team built around defense, not offense.
They don’t run the ball well, and their attack leans on short completions to keep drives alive. That puts pressure on Washington’s secondary, which has had tackling issues at times this season.
The Huskies have to keep those short throws from turning into bigger gains, and that means cutting out the mental mistakes that have hurt them against Penn St and Iowa.
There’s also a matchup edge for Michigan State in stopping the run. The Spartans defend it better than anything else on either side of the ball, which makes Washington’s ground game a key swing factor.
Jayden Limar gave the Huskies a spark last week, but they moved away from it too quickly. Demond Williams improved as the game went on and showed better pocket presence in the second half.
Between Chris Lawson and Dezmen Roebuck, Washington has enough passing talent to score here. The concern is whether the Huskies actually lean into those strengths, or whether the same mental lapses show up again.
Washington 24 - Michigan St 20
UCLA, meanwhile, keeps rolling despite the concern that Nico Iamaleava’s injury would knock the offense off track. Instead, the Bruins have won every game since by double digits.
Illinois deserves credit for outperforming expectations again this season and has won four straight, but that streak includes several games where the other side fell apart. Based on what UCLA has shown, a similar collapse doesn’t look likely.
Illinois at UCLA is set with the Bruins favored by 10.
Ohio St’s schedule brings back an old feeling for anyone who remembers the John Cooper era, with #20 next to the Buckeyes’ name. Northwestern comes in at 6-3, which has to count as a success, even if back-to-back losses to Oregon and Iowa have made them look more human.
It’s tough to know what to make of Ohio St giving up 38 unanswered points to Oregon last week. If the defense is slipping, Northwestern has a path.
But after two underwhelming offensive outings and with a major talent gap, the Wildcats are hard to back on the road. Ohio St 35 - Northwestern 20
Indiana has won two straight since its hard-fought loss to Ohio St, but neither game was exactly clean. The Hoosiers edged Michigan late and needed plenty of luck to get past Minnesota.
USC comes in off a bye after its season-saving win over Ohio St. Lincoln Riley seems to get USC moving in the right direction, then something goes sideways - as it did earlier this year against Oregon.
Indiana doesn’t look ready to blow out a conference opponent, but USC still isn’t trustworthy enough to take outright. Indiana 27 - USC 24
Michigan travels to Oregon after the Ducks fired their offensive coordinator and then put up 41 points against Ohio St. The question now is whether that same shake-up can spark Michigan, whose offense has been stuck in even deeper mud.
The one unit worth trusting in this matchup is Michigan’s defense. That won’t be enough to win the game, but the Wolverines haven’t lost by double digits all season, and Oregon’s offense has been uneven enough to keep this from feeling like a runaway.
Minnesota’s last two games came against the conference’s top two teams, Indiana and UCLA, and the results weren’t pretty. Penn St has won back-to-back games over Purdue and Washington, though those victories don’t say much given the difference in competition. This one looks like it should stay close and low-scoring.
In Other News...
Chris Lawson Is Becoming A Bigger Deal For Washington At The Right Time
Chris Lawsons rise has given Washingtons passing game a badly needed lift, and now the second-year wide receiver is getting recognition to match. Lawson has been named to the Biletnikoff Award watchlist, putting him in the conversation for college footballs top receiver after emerging as the Huskies leading threat through the air this season.
For a Washington team still pushing to secure bowl eligibility, Lawsons timing could hardly be better. The Huskies need one more win to get there, and having a receiver who has become such a central part of the offense gives them a real weapon as the season reaches its most important stretch. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan State Brings Washington A Familiar Offense With One Big Catch
Michigan States offense has a familiar feel for Washington followers, even if the circumstances around it are far less familiar. After the Spartans moved on from Jonathan Smith and hired Pat Fitzgerald, the program has spent much of the season trying to steady itself through injuries and a six-game losing streak, one that finally ended with a 15-6 win over Michigan despite plenty of offensive limitations.
At the center of it is offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan, whose background includes stops with Washington and Alabama and a passing scheme built to help the quarterback. The problem has been less about the design than the available pieces, with the current roster unable to fully support what Sheridan wants to do, leaving Michigan State with an attack that looks recognizable on paper but has been capped by what it can actually put on the field. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Signing Day Leaves One Big Recruiting Question Open
The early signing period brought a busy first day for Washington basketball, with both programs getting some paperwork in place for the Class of 2027. On the womens side, Jessie Moses and ZeNi Patterson officially signed, giving Tina Langleys staff a chance to publicly celebrate two players they believe fit the direction of the program. Langley offered official praise for the signees, and the moment offered a reminder that Washingtons recruiting momentum is still very much a live storyline.
There was still one notable loose end on the mens side, where RJ Barhoum signed but Jimmie Haywood had not yet done so. For a signing day that already had some good news in hand, the unanswered question only sharpened the focus on what comes next, especially with the womens staff still in the hunt for elite talent like Kaleena Smith. Washington got part of its class locked in, but the full picture is not finished yet. [Read more 🡒]