Iowa and Northwestern fit the same mold right now: sturdy defenses, limited offense, and a ceiling that doesn’t leave much room to breathe. They’re part of a group that also includes Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan - teams that look headed for around eight wins and an occasional spot near the back end of the top 25.
Iowa is riding a little momentum after last week’s win over Wisconsin, but Northwestern gets the nod here after letting an early lead slip against Oregon. At home, the Wildcats should be able to steady themselves.
Northwestern 20 - Iowa 17
Penn St @ Washington (-2)
Washington’s season has already taken a few strange turns, and the latest one came in Lincoln. The Huskies survived Nebraska in a game that looked like it might get away from them, then somehow turned it into a signature road win.
That result fit the broader shape of the season for UW: the defense held up, the offense had trouble with Nebraska’s front seven, and the finish came down to a handful of miracle plays and Anthony Colandrea’s sloppiness. I came into that one expecting Washington to lose convincingly, so the cover and the win both landed as surprises.
Penn St, meanwhile, is still trying to prove that its bounce-back was real. The Nittany Lions had looked like a team on the brink before getting right against Purdue, and they haven’t had to answer the question again since.
Their resume is still built on Marshall, Temple, Buffalo, and Purdue, which makes it hard to compare them with Washington’s level of competition. The bigger issue has been offensive inconsistency against better defenses.
Matt Campbell brought QB Rocco Becht with him from Iowa St, and Becht struggled enough early in conference play that there were whispers about benching him. Unlike some Penn St teams from years past, there isn’t an electric run game here to smooth over the passing issues.
The defensive side is still Penn St’s strength, though it’s not quite the wrecking ball you might expect at 25th in defensive SP+. Washington’s best offensive moments this year came when Elijah Brown got the ball out quickly and let the receivers work.
It sounds like Demond Williams will take the reins back from Brown after finishing the Nebraska game, and the Huskies probably won’t get much help from the run game. Williams has been at his best when he can use his legs, so Jedd Fisch will need to find ways to get him moving or get the ball out fast.
If Washington keeps winning the turnover battle, this is very much a game they can take. It feels like a coin flip decided by field position, penalties, turnovers, and a couple of big plays, so I’m leaning home team.
Washington 20 - Penn St 17
Nebraska @ Illinois (+4.5)
Nebraska is trying to recover quickly after the home loss to Washington, and Matt Rhule has already taken heat from Husker fans for it. The offense needs to wake up, too, after scoring 17 points or fewer in each of the last three games.
Illinois brings a strange profile into this one at 5-3, with a win over Oregon and a loss to Purdue sitting side by side. Nebraska’s defense should be enough to help it edge this one, but not enough to make the spread feel safe.
Nebraska 21 - Illinois 20
UCLA @ Minnesota (+5.5)
UCLA has stayed unbeaten even after losing some offensive punch with Nico Iamaleava injured, but Minnesota looks like the toughest test yet without him. The Gophers are coming off a painful late loss to Indiana, and outside of the baffling blowout against Purdue, they’ve played like a top-15 team in the conference. This should be another defense-heavy game, and UCLA’s track record in high-leverage moments plus its steady rushing attack gives it the edge.
UCLA 23 - Minnesota 20
Oregon @ Ohio St (-7.5)
This was supposed to be the Big Ten’s showcase game heading into the season. Instead, the two teams have five combined losses and their College Football Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
Ohio St has to win to stay in the race, while Oregon is already out. The Ducks’ offense hasn’t been good enough all year, and it hasn’t been able to beat top-25 teams since Dante Moore was injured.
The absence of Julian Sayin keeps the door cracked for a low-scoring upset bid, but not enough for me to take Oregon.
Ohio St 28 - Oregon 20
Michigan St @ Michigan (-13.5)
Pat Fitzgerald was supposed to lift Michigan St’s floor right away, but that hasn’t happened. A year after finishing 4-8 with their best wins coming against Maryland and BC, the Spartans are 2-6 and their best win is Toledo.
They’ve been competitive against Illinois and Northwestern in conference play, but otherwise they haven’t been in many games. Michigan hasn’t exactly looked like a two-touchdown favorite, either.
The Wolverines’ win over UTEP is the only game among their eight that was decided by more than one score, and Tommy Carr hasn’t done enough at quarterback to change that expectation. This one feels closer than the spread suggests, but still a Michigan win.
Michigan 28 - Michigan St 21
In Other News...
Washington Just Raised A Bigger Quarterback Concern For The Future
Washingtons quarterback future took another hit this week when Blake Roskopf backed off his pledge, adding to a run of recruiting turbulence that has already left the program trying to steady itself. The four-star prospect had been the lone quarterback committed in the Class of 2027, so his departure does more than thin out a recruiting board. It leaves the Huskies looking at a future room that now has to be built almost entirely from scratch.
The timing matters because this is the second high-end recruit to step away in the past week, and it comes against the backdrop of a program that may be prioritizing retention over splashy recruiting wins. For a staff trying to protect the roster it already has, that approach can make sense, but it also creates pressure elsewhere, especially at quarterback, where the pipeline is suddenly a concern rather than a strength. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Recruiting Suddenly Has A Jedd Fisch Problem
Washingtons recruiting momentum has taken a hit in the span of a few days, a reminder that the early days of the Jedd Fisch era are still vulnerable to the kind of volatility that comes with any coaching change. The Huskies have been trying to build on-field traction after a notable road win at Nebraska, where Chris Lawson and Demond Williams helped deliver a result that should have been a boost for the programs broader pitch.
Instead, the recruiting board has gotten shakier. Former Husky Trent McDuffie recently voiced his thoughts about missing the Pac-12 in a radio interview, a nod to how much the conference shift still hangs over the programs identity, and Washington now has to keep selling stability while navigating the uncertainty that comes with a new staff and a new league. For Fisch and his assistants, the challenge is no longer just landing prospects, but keeping them in the fold long enough to make the class feel secure. [Read more 🡒]
Washington May Be Catching Penn State At Exactly The Right Time
Penn States season has been a study in adjustment under first-year head coach Matt Campbell, and the changes have shown up on both sides of the ball. Brian Bennetts read on the Nittany Lions points to a team still searching for consistency, with quarterback Rocco Becht trying to steady the offense while new defensive coordinator DAnton Lynn continues sorting through scheme tweaks and personnel fit.
For Washington, that makes this matchup feel like it could arrive at a useful moment. The Huskies are getting a Penn State team that has had to manage a lot of moving parts, from offensive production to defensive identity, and the uncertainty around who is available and who can carry the load has been part of the story all season. There is still enough talent on the roster to make this a tricky test, but the broader picture suggests a group that is still trying to find its footing. [Read more 🡒]