No. 18 USC gets a chance to steady itself Saturday when it hosts Washington in a Week 5 matchup that looks simple on paper but comes with plenty of pressure attached.
The Trojans are coming off a loss to Oregon that knocked them down in the AP Poll and hurt their College Football Playoff odds. Washington, meanwhile, is 3-1 after falling to Minnesota in Week 4. The Huskies’ record looks solid, but two of those wins came against Utah State and Eastern Washington.
Oddsmakers have USC installed as a 9.5-point home favorite, and Lincoln Riley’s team has been better at home this season, going 3-1 there. Still, the Trojans have not been trustworthy against the number, covering just once in five games. They also enter this one looking vulnerable after nearly losing to Rutgers and then dropping that home game to Oregon.
Jayden Maiava is at the center of it all. He has had a strong 2026 season overall, completing 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,499 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also scoring twice on the ground. But last week against Oregon, he had one of his least efficient outings of the year, completing only 54.8 percent of his throws and throwing his second pick.
The challenge gets more complicated because Washington’s defense has been excellent. The Huskies rank No. 1 in EPA/Rush and No. 5 in EPA/Play, while USC sits fourth nationally in net adjusted ERA/Play and seventh in EPA/Pass on offense. That sets up a clear stress test for Maiava and the Trojans’ passing game.
Washington’s offense has not been nearly as sharp. The Huskies rank 104th in EPA/Pass and 80th in EPA/Rush, and that has helped produce some tight games against weaker opponents.
Even so, the matchup still feels dangerous for USC because the Trojans have been giving up points in bunches. They have allowed at least 26 points in four games and at least 30 in three, and their defense ranks 129th in the country in net adjusted EPA/Play.
That’s the big problem for USC in this spot. The Trojans can put up numbers, but Washington’s defense is good enough to make life uncomfortable, especially with the Huskies ranked No. 1 in EPA/Rush. If USC gets pushed into a more one-dimensional passing game, covering nearly double digits becomes a much tougher ask.
The Trojans should score. The question is whether they can do enough on the other side to separate from a Washington team that may not be explosive, but is good enough defensively to keep this close. My pick: Washington covers.
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