Greg McElroy is expecting a tight one in Seattle, and he’s siding with the road team.
On his podcast, the Always College Football host picked No. 20 Iowa to beat Washington 17-13 in Friday night’s Big Ten matchup at Husky Stadium. McElroy pointed to Iowa’s defense, Washington’s issues up front, and a game script that figures to keep both offenses under pressure.
"I'm taking Iowa to win the game 17-13. I'm not convinced that Washington can run or protect.
They also struggle on third down. Iowa's defense punishes all three."
It’s not the popular choice on paper. Washington opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and the line has since moved to -3.5 in the Huskies’ direction.
Both teams come in needing a bounce. Iowa is 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten after a 31-14 home loss to Ohio State.
Washington sits at 3-2 and 0-2 after back-to-back conference losses, 27-24 against Minnesota and 25-21 at USC. The teams also met last season, with Iowa rolling to a 40-16 win in Iowa City on Oct.
12, 2024.
The Hawkeyes’ quarterback situation adds another layer. Starter Hank Brown left the Ohio State game late in the third quarter with a sprained joint in his right throwing shoulder, and coach Kirk Ferentz called him questionable Tuesday.
"I wouldn't say we're fully back to normal by any means," Brown said. "But we're making progress a ton."
Hecklinski took over against Ohio State and completed all five of his passes for 67 yards on Iowa’s lone touchdown drive. Even with the quarterback uncertainty, McElroy believes the Hawkeyes’ identity won’t change.
"Either way, Iowa wants to run the football," McElroy said.
That run game has had moments, especially from Kamari Moulton, who has 311 yards on 50 carries against FBS opponents. But Iowa’s ground attack has also been inefficient overall, ranking 120th nationally in rushing success rate at 36.1%. Washington’s front has been strong against the run, sitting fourth in expected points allowed per rush and limiting opponents to a 32.1% conversion rate on third and fourth down, which ranks tied for seventh.
McElroy set a clear benchmark for Iowa: 150 rushing yards.
"Since 2005, Iowa has only lost 18 times when it runs for 150 or more," he said.
Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. brings plenty of production, completing 67.5% of his throws for 1,327 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. But the protection issues are real. He has been sacked 13 times against FBS opponents, and Washington went just 1-for-12 on third down at USC.
Williams has also been the Huskies’ most dangerous runner, with 223 yards on 32 carries against FBS teams. That puts him up against an Iowa defense that ranks sixth nationally in expected points allowed per rush.
The Huskies’ passing game has leaned on Dezmen Roebuck and Chris Lawson. McElroy called Roebuck the volume target and Lawson the deep threat.
"Their receiver is Dezmen Roebuck. He's the volume target," McElroy said.
"They also have Chris Lawson. He's kind of the deep shot."
Lawson leads Washington with 253 receiving yards on 15 catches against FBS opponents. Still, McElroy sees the Hawkeyes forcing Washington into passing situations where the sacks can pile up.
"So Washington will probably have to throw it, and that's when the sacks come," McElroy said. "If Iowa gets three, four, five sacks, then Washington's probably not going to get to 20 points."
Washington’s third-down numbers back that up. The Huskies convert 32.2% of their third and fourth downs, which ranks 124th nationally.
McElroy also pointed to the way Jedd Fisch’s teams have fared when they fall behind first.
"Jedd Fisch is 8-25 at Arizona and Washington when the other team scores first," McElroy said. "And Iowa's offense is not really built to chase. So in a game like this, the first touchdown might count for double."
Iowa’s defense is the centerpiece of the prediction. The Hawkeyes rank seventh nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency and have allowed just 12.5 points per game, tied for eighth in the country.
Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 9, at Husky Stadium. The game will air on Fox or FS1.
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