Week 9 didn’t treat Betting the Big Ten kindly. Michigan was among the six picks that missed, and the week ended at 3-6, knocking the season mark to 51-45-1. The one bright spot came in the biggest game on the board, where USC rolled and covered against an Ohio State team that looked flat.
Now comes a Week 10 slate that was supposed to be loaded. Instead, the Big Ten’s biggest game has lost its shine, with Oregon at Ohio State no longer carrying the weight it once did.
The conference still has plenty to sort out, though, and there are enough numbers here to make a case in several spots. All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nebraska opens Friday night at Illinois as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 49.5. The Cornhuskers have made a habit of late heartbreak, coughing up fourth-quarter leads in each of the last three weeks.
Even so, they’re 6-2 against the spread and have covered four of their last five. Illinois sits at 3-4-1 ATS, and the defense is the part that keeps dragging the Fighting Illini down.
The pick: Nebraska -4.5.
Saturday starts with UCLA laying 5.5 at Minnesota in a game with a 39.5 total. The Bruins are still perfect against the spread at 8-0, and that’s enough to keep backing them for now.
Minnesota is no slouch in that department at 6-2 ATS, so this isn’t a free square. Still, the streak stays alive until it doesn’t.
The pick: UCLA -5.5.
Maryland visits Purdue in a game where the total feels more appealing than the side. Purdue is a 6-point favorite, and the over/under sits at 56.5.
Both teams are 6-2 to the over, and neither defense has done much to slow anyone down. Maryland’s scoring defense ranks 122nd nationally, while Purdue’s is 124th.
The over has also been a recent trend for both teams, with Maryland going over in four of its last five and Purdue in three of its last five. The pick: Over 56.5.
The Oregon-Ohio State matchup has already taken a hit in the market. The Buckeyes were once 14-point favorites, but after last week’s loss in Los Angeles, the number dropped all the way to 6 before settling at 7.5.
The total is 46.5, and the lean here is under. Ohio State’s defense remains elite despite the USC stumble, Oregon’s offense has its own issues, and both teams are dealing with backup quarterbacks.
The pick: Under 46.5.
Penn State heads to Washington as a 2.5-point underdog with a 44.5 total. The line moved hard in Washington’s direction after Penn State opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday, and that kind of shift is enough to follow. The pick: Washington -2.5.
Wisconsin gets a chance to reset at home against Rutgers, with the Badgers favored by 17.5 and the total at 45.5. After the emotional high of the USC upset, Wisconsin was hammered 30-0 by Iowa.
Rutgers offers a chance to get back on track, and the home numbers help the case: Wisconsin is 3-1 ATS at home, while Rutgers is 1-2 ATS on the road. The pick: Wisconsin -17.5.
Iowa and Northwestern meet in a 7:30 p.m. game that carries a 45.5 total and a 3-point line in favor of the Wildcats. The loser is effectively done in the CFP race, with a third loss likely too much to overcome.
The total is tricky because Iowa usually points toward the under while Northwestern often trends over, so the side becomes the cleaner play. Northwestern is 4-1 at Ryan Field and comes in looking to bounce back from a loss at Oregon.
The pick: Northwestern -3.
The night ends with Michigan State at Michigan, where the Wolverines are 13.5-point favorites and the total is 39.5. Both teams are coming into this one with more concern about avoiding defeat than chasing style points.
Michigan has been rough as a favorite, going 1-5 ATS, while Michigan State hasn’t been much better as an underdog. The better angle is the under.
Michigan ranks 115th nationally in scoring, Michigan State 125th, and the Wolverines’ defense is the best unit on the field. But expecting Michigan’s offense to suddenly start rolling is a dangerous bet.
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