Halloween weekend brought another shake-up to ESPN’s FPI, and the biggest swings came with the kind of results that make the formula look both ruthless and a little bizarre. Iowa, USC, Washington, Boston College, UCF and Oklahoma all moved in very different directions after Week 9, with some teams getting a real boost and others taking a hard hit.
Iowa was one of the weekend’s clearest winners. After a rough loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes answered with a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin.
That result likely sends the Badgers tumbling out of the AP top 25 and gets Iowa back in. The Hawkeyes are still carrying two losses, and their College Football Playoff chances sit at just 11%, but the jump puts them up to sixth in the Big Ten and points toward a strong bowl destination.
USC also made a big move, and this one came with a statement win. The Trojans beat Ohio State 30-18, a result that dropped the Buckeyes just one spot but lifted USC 10 places.
That’s a major swing for a team that had just been beaten 24-7 by Wisconsin and looked like it might be sliding. Instead, the Trojans get an open week before heading to Indiana, a team that suddenly looks vulnerable.
USC’s Playoff odds are only 18.7%, but games against Indiana and UCLA could still change that picture.
Washington didn’t produce the flashiest result, but the Huskies did enough to keep building. They edged Nebraska 17-10, and while they’re not in the Playoff conversation, the win pushed their chances of reaching six victories and bowl eligibility to 84.8%. The final stretch is still tricky, with Indiana coming to Seattle and Oregon waiting on the road to close the regular season.
Not every weekend brought good news. Boston College took the hardest fall among the ACC teams mentioned here, getting blasted by Duke 47-2.
That’s the kind of loss that leaves a mark. The Eagles are 4-4, but with Notre Dame and Miami still on the schedule, their odds of getting to six regular-season wins and a bowl are down to 11.4%.
UCF also had a rough Friday night. The Golden Knights were coming off an upset of No.
2 BYU, but Baylor snapped that momentum with a 41-9 win. Even so, the rest of the schedule gives UCF some breathing room.
None of the teams left on the slate has a winning record, and the Knights still have a 74.1% chance of getting to six wins.
Oklahoma’s loss may have been the most frustrating of the bunch in the SEC. The Sooners fell 42-25 at home to South Carolina, and FPI reacted by dropping them 11 spots.
South Carolina moved up one place, but Oklahoma’s path is getting tighter by the week. Three ranked teams remain on the schedule, along with road trips to Florida and Missouri, and even their 50.5% shot at six wins may be on the optimistic side.
In Other News...
Nebraska Let Another Late Lead Slip Away In Blackout Loss
Washington spent much of the night waiting for the offense to find its footing, then got the spark it needed from a familiar reserve quarterback. Demond Williams Jr. helped turn a tight Big Ten game into a 17-10 Huskies win over Nebraska, and Chris Lawson was the difference-maker throughout the finish with a career-best 12 catches for 155 yards. The result kept Washington in the fight in a game that had the feel of a grinder from start to finish.
Nebraskas problems kept compounding in the fourth quarter, with Anthony Colandrea throwing three interceptions and one of them going back for a touchdown by Alex McLaughlin. The Blackout setting only added to the drama, but the Huskies were the team that handled the late pressure better, leaning on a backup quarterback and a receiver who kept finding space when it mattered most. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Is Suddenly Chasing A Recruiting Win Fans Will Notice
Washingtons push to sharpen its recruiting operation is starting to show up in a place fans will notice. The Huskies have been making moves behind the scenes, including hiring Alex Kline as general manager to help strengthen recruiting and NIL efforts, and now they are in the mix for a Class of 2027 shooting guard whose decision could say something about where the program is headed.
Jimmie Haywood will announce his college commitment on Nov. 3, with Washington among the schools still in the running alongside Nevada and Loyola Marymount. For a program looking to build momentum as it prepares for the 2026-27 regular season opener against Colgate at Alaska Airlines Arena, landing a player like Haywood would be a meaningful sign that the Huskies can compete for talent in a crowded field. [Read more 🡒]
Washington Recruiting Just Took A Hit In A Critical Pipeline
Washingtons grip on a key recruiting target in the 2027 class loosened this week when four-star wide receiver Dontay Tyson Jr. reopened his recruitment and moved on from the Huskies. Tyson, a Peoria High School standout in Arizona, had been part of Washingtons early work on the trail after committing in June, a notable win in a pipeline the staff clearly wanted to protect.
His decision leaves the Huskies back at square one with a prospect ranked among the nations top 400 players, and it comes at a time when every high-end receiver commitment matters for a program trying to build momentum in the West. Tysons move to Wisconsin is another reminder that early pledges can be fragile, especially when other programs keep pushing after a player has already made an initial call. [Read more 🡒]