Week 10 doesn’t decide the NFC East, but it can tilt the whole race hard in the Giants’ favor.
Thursday night’s matchup with the Washington Commanders is the kind of game that can redraw the division picture in one shot. The Giants enter at 5-2-1, and Team Rankings gives them a 69.5% chance to win the NFC East. Dallas sits at 24.0%, while Washington is down at 6.4%.
The betting line says the Giants should handle business, too. FanDuel Sportsbook has New York as 1.5-point favorites against Washington. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers.
If the Giants take care of the Commanders and Dallas stumbles, the standings would suddenly look a lot more comfortable for New York:
Giants 6-2-1
Cowboys 4-6
Commanders 2-6-1
That would give the Giants a 3½-game cushion. From there, even a fairly ordinary 3-5 finish would leave them at 9-7-1. Dallas, on the other hand, would need to go 6-1 just to get to 10 wins, which would be enough to win the division because the Giants’ tie with Washington counts as half a victory.
That’s a steep climb, and it’s why this week matters so much. If the Giants lose and Dallas pulls the upset against San Francisco, the race tightens fast. In that version of the standings, Dallas would be only 1.5 games back, and Washington would still be alive with eight games left.
Giants head coach John Harbaugh put it plainly when talking about the Commanders, and the point stretches beyond just one opponent:
“This is for all the marbles. It’s a tie right now.
This is the tiebreaker. It’s like going to the second half tied, you have a chance to go win the game right now and be one up on these guys for the rest of the season.
So, it’s a big game.”
The schedule after Week 10 only adds to the pressure. The Giants still have Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, Cleveland, Detroit, Dallas, and Philadelphia ahead. The Cowboys’ path includes Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, a bye, the Rams, Jacksonville, the Giants, and Washington.
There are a few other things worth watching when these teams meet again.
The Giants have already seen how dangerous Jayden Daniels can be when he takes off on his own. In Week 5, he ran for touchdowns of 38 and 26 yards, and those unscripted quarterback runs were a huge problem for New York. After that game, defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said those runs “should never have happened.”
That issue gets trickier because the Giants have leaned heavily on man coverage, which leaves defensive backs without eyes on the quarterback. They’ve also used a spy only sparingly. Whether they change that approach Thursday night will be one of the more interesting tactical questions of the game.
Then there’s the weather. The first meeting in Landover was a mess on grass in rainy, miserable conditions. This one is shaping up to be another ugly night, only this time on Field Turf in rainy, miserable, cold conditions.
The National Weather Service forecast for East Rutherford, N.J. calls for rain, a low around 40, north wind at 9 to 11 mph with gusts as high as 23 mph, and an 80% chance of precipitation. Between the weather and the conditions, ball security should be a major issue.
That matters for a Giants team that has already put the ball on the ground too often. They’ve fumbled 14 times this season and lost six of them. Four teams have more fumbles: the Packers, Patriots, Chargers and Saints, all with 15.
It also brings back memories of the first Commanders game, when a glove-less Skattebo fumbled away a scoring chance in overtime. The Giants also know their kicking game was shaky that day, with rookie placekicker Dominic Zvada going just 2 of 5 on field-goal tries against Washington, missing from 50, 57 and 46 yards.
Skattebo is another player to keep an eye on. He thrives on emotion, and he has plenty to feed off Thursday night.
There’s the failed Jonathan Taylor trade chatter, the reality that the Giants have been searching for an upgrade at RB1 for a while, and the fact that the NFL world has known about that pursuit for some time. The Giants were in on Kenneth Walker in free agency, were connected to Jeremiyah Love in the draft, aggressively pursued Taylor, and even made a call about Bijan Robinson.
He also missed Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles, which would have marked his return to the place where he suffered his dislocated ankle in 2025. And there’s still the memory of his costly fumble against Washington in Week 5, which led to his pseudo-benching in Week 6.
The Giants could use that edge to show up in a big way, especially with the running game needing a spark. Thursday night offers him the chance to provide it.
In Other News...
Dan Quinn Finally Addressed A Costly Commanders Problem
Late-game trouble has become a familiar and frustrating theme around the Commanders, and Dan Quinn finally acknowledged it after the recent loss to the Rams. With two first-year coordinators in David Blough on offense and Daronte Jones on defense, Quinn suggested there are bound to be some growing pains as the staff and roster continue to sort out how to finish games cleanly.
The ending against Los Angeles only sharpened the issue, with Jayden Daniels involved in a controversial play call that ended in a fumble and a loss. Daniels and Quinn both declined to go into much detail afterward, leaving the Commanders with the same lingering question they have been trying to answer all season: how to avoid letting games slip away in the final moments. [Read more 🡒]
Jayden Daniels Faces A Week 10 Test The Giants Just Complicated
Jayden Daniels is heading into another one of those early-season checkpoints that can say a lot about where a young quarterback and his team really stand. The Commanders have already seen what Daniels can do at the helm after his electric rookie year, when he pushed Washington all the way to the NFC championship game and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Now he is working through a new offensive coordinator and a different system, which makes every week feel a little more revealing than the last.
Week 10 adds another layer because it brings Daniels back across from J.J. McCarthy, another member of the 2024 rookie quarterback class who has taken a far different path. McCarthy missed his rookie season because of injury, then wound up with the Giants after losing the starting job in Minnesota, and he is now settling in as New York's starter following a midseason trade. Their second meeting as starters has the feel of a familiar matchup with a very different backdrop, and for Washington, the Giants have just made the test a little more complicated. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Face One Week 10 Decision That Could Swing Fantasy Lineups
The Week 10 matchup with the Giants has turned into a tricky fantasy puzzle for anyone building a DraftKings showdown lineup around Washington. Jayden Daniels remains the obvious centerpiece after his recent production and dual-threat upside, while the rest of the Commanders offense has to be sorted through a matchup that also puts New York playmakers like Malik Nabers on the radar. Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Chig Okonkwo, along with kickers Dominic Zvada and Drew Stevens, round out the pool of names that could matter in a one-game format where every touch and every field goal attempt can swing the slate.
Washingtons backfield adds another layer of uncertainty for fantasy managers trying to read the game script. The Commanders have settled into a two-man running back committee, which makes it harder to project volume and forces a closer look at how touches will be divided in a matchup that could stay tight. For a team still trying to balance efficiency with opportunity, that split could be the difference between a useful lineup play and a frustrating fade. [Read more 🡒]