Week 4 offers a fresh swing at an upset after a frustrating Saturday for SI’s picks in Week 3. Iain MacMillan and Mitch Goldich were right there before Cam Ward’s end-zone interception wrecked Tennessee’s chance against the Giants. Gilberto Manzano’s Jets pick also got dented by a late turnover in Detroit, while Peter Dewey’s call on the Patriots over the Jaguars never really got traction.
This week, one of the more interesting spots sits in London, where the Commanders could be in line for another useful offensive showing even if Jayden Daniels isn’t available. New offensive coordinator David Blough may have found a workable formula for keeping the unit moving without leaning too hard on one quarterback.
That was the big issue last year when Daniels went down, but Blough’s setup helped Terry McLaurin find favorable matchups and made things easier for Marcus Mariota in Washington’s 33-31 upset over the Seahawks last week. That result didn’t feel like a one-off, and there’s still a chance Daniels plays against the Colts.
Still, the strongest upset lean for this week is on Monday night, where the Falcons visit the Saints in an NFC South matchup. Atlanta’s 0-2 start scared plenty of people off, and for good reason, but the offense looked functional on Thursday night in Week 3 against the Packers with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. That matters against a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play and 30th in success rate in 2026.
New Orleans did get a boost from its upset of Baltimore, which pushed the Saints to the top of the NFC South odds. But that momentum didn’t last long, and they followed it by giving up 35 points in a home loss to Las Vegas.
The Falcons’ defense has been the steadier side of the ball, sitting in the top 10 in yards per play allowed, success rate, and EPA/Play. If Penix can keep feeding Bijan Robinson and Drake London the way he did in Week 3, Atlanta has a real shot to be the better team here. In a division where no one has looked trustworthy enough to back as a favorite through three weeks, the Falcons are the side to take at this number.
One more caution flag: don’t chase Chicago just because Case Keenum looked sharp on Monday Night Football. Backup-quarterback breakout games have a way of fooling people, and they usually don’t hold up from one week to the next.
The Jets, meanwhile, deserve credit for how they’ve started. They’re not a playoff team, but they’ve been roughly average to above average in a lot of areas on both sides of the ball, and their special teams remain one of the league’s best. If Keenum doesn’t duplicate his Week 3 showing, New York is very much alive in that game.
In Other News...
Commanders Suddenly Have A Bigger QB Question Than They Wanted
Marcus Mariotas relief turn against the Seahawks did more than steady the Commanders for a week. It also put him in the same conversation Jayden Daniels had been owning all season, as Mariota was voted FedEx Air Player of the Week after stepping in for the injured rookie and helping keep Washington on track.
Mariota completed 19 passes for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 110.0 passer rating, and he even added a key rushing first down late in the game. Daniels had already won the same award three times during his rookie season, which is what makes this latest honor feel a little more complicated for Washington as it waits to see how the quarterback picture settles going forward. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders May Have Found The Protection Answer Jayden Daniels Needed
Against a tough Seattle front, the Commanders offensive line turned in one of its more encouraging outings of the season, keeping Jayden Daniels upright and giving the offense a fighting chance. Washington allowed only two sacks and handled the pass rush well enough that the game never felt like it was slipping away because of protection issues, which has been a real concern at times this year.
The improvement came from a mix of schematic tweaks and cleaner individual work up front, and that combination mattered against a defense built to punish mistakes. For a team trying to maximize Daniels impact, Sunday offered at least a glimpse of a more workable formula, even if the bigger question is whether Washington can make that level of protection hold up once opponents have more film on it. [Read more 🡒]
Jayden Daniels Injury Outlook Just Became A Real Commanders Concern
Jayden Daniels has been working through another layer of discomfort as Washington prepares for the Colts, practicing with a large brace on his left arm to guard against further elbow dislocations after injuries last year and again earlier this season. The Commanders quarterback has opted to put surgery off until after the season, if he needs it at all, and his availability for Sunday remains part of the weekly uncertainty around a team trying to keep its season on track.
Daniels said the brace does limit his range of motion, but not his throwing motion, which leaves Washington in the familiar spot of balancing caution with urgency. He is taking things day by day, and for a Commanders team already watching closely, his status against Indianapolis now looms as one of the more important storylines of the week. [Read more 🡒]