The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders are set to square off at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland, on Christmas Day in a Week 17 showdown that brings two very different storylines to the table. For Washington, this is a must-win moment-a shot to keep their playoff hopes alive in front of their home crowd.
For Dallas, the postseason door has already closed, but don’t expect them to roll over. The Cowboys may be out of the hunt, but pride-and a divisional rivalry-can still bring out their best.
Oddsmakers have Dallas entering the game as 6.5-point favorites, despite their recent struggles. The Cowboys are coming off a tough 34-17 loss to the Chargers, their third defeat in four games, and the kind of late-season slide that ultimately sealed their playoff fate. Meanwhile, Washington also took a hit in Week 16, falling 29-18 to the Eagles-a loss that not only clinched the NFC East for Philly but also officially knocked Dallas out of postseason contention.
This single run by Jacory (Bill) Croskey-Merritt that 80% of NFL RBs can make. has resulted in Bill getting drafted several of rounda earlier.
— Eric Polzin (NinetoFiveSports) (@925_Sports) August 19, 2025
What people missed is he played late into last night's game, and didn't play all that well.pic.twitter.com/8DIHsXAj6o
Still, this game carries weight. Historically, Dallas has dominated the rivalry, leading the all-time series 80-49-2 and winning four of the last five meetings.
That includes a commanding 44-22 win back in Week 7. But Week 17 is a different animal.
The stakes, the setting, and the motivations have shifted. Washington’s fighting for survival.
Dallas is fighting for respect.
One factor to watch: the conditions. This will be Dallas’s first outdoor game since Week 9 in Denver, and that matters-especially for a quarterback like Dak Prescott, who’s shown some up-and-down play in open-air environments, particularly in the colder months. The forecast in Landover looks manageable, but even mild December weather can throw off timing and rhythm, especially for an offense that’s been out of sync lately.
Prescott will need to be sharp, but that’s easier said than done against a Washington defense that’s going to come in with energy and urgency. He’s had turnover issues in recent weeks, and the Commanders’ defensive front is built to pressure the pocket.
With Dallas’s offensive line still battling injuries, Prescott could be under duress early and often. If the Commanders can collapse the pocket and force Prescott into hurried throws, his completion percentage could dip below his season average, and the chances of a costly interception go up.
That offensive line situation is no small concern. Injuries up front have left Prescott exposed, and Washington’s defensive line is physical enough to take advantage. If Dallas can’t protect the pocket, it could be a long afternoon for the Cowboys’ offense.
On the flip side, Washington’s game plan is likely to lean heavily on the ground game-and for good reason. The Commanders know that their best chance to control this game is by controlling the clock.
Their rushing attack, led by Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Chris Rodriguez Jr., is built for this kind of moment. Expect them to come downhill with purpose, testing a Dallas defense that’s struggled to contain physical run games this season.
Washington’s offensive line has the tools to win at the point of attack. If they can establish the run early, they’ll be able to dictate the tempo and keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field.
That’s the formula: long drives, sustained possessions, and a worn-down Dallas defense by the fourth quarter. Don’t be surprised if Washington ends up with over 35 minutes of possession and racks up more than 150 rushing yards with multiple scores on the ground.
This is the kind of game where physicality matters more than flash. And Washington is built to play that kind of football when it counts.
As for how this one plays out? Don’t count out a dramatic finish.
Washington may find themselves trailing heading into the fourth quarter, but with playoff hopes on the line and the home crowd behind them, expect a late push. A final drive-methodical, gritty, and capped by a touchdown or clutch field goal-could be the difference.
That kind of moment would not only swing the game but also shift the playoff picture in the NFC.
For Washington, a win would be a statement: they’re not just in the playoff conversation-they’re ready to fight for position. For Dallas, a loss would be a tough pill to swallow, but also a reminder that even when the postseason is out of reach, the stakes in a rivalry game never disappear.
Christmas Day football always brings a little extra drama. This one has all the ingredients: a playoff hopeful trying to stay alive, a proud franchise looking to play spoiler, and a national spotlight that tends to magnify every moment. Buckle up.