A few months ago, the Commanders looked like they had one of the friendlier paths in the NFL, at least on paper. That picture has changed fast.
Washington’s 2026 strength of schedule has been updated, and it is now slotted as the fourth-hardest in the league, according to Warren Sharp’s model using Las Vegas win totals. Back in June, Sharp had the Commanders at the #25 easiest schedule. Now they sit at #29, which means the slate has moved in the wrong direction by a wide margin.
Sharp pointed to a run of opponents that helps explain the jump. Washington has the Cowboys twice and the Bengals on the docket, and he noted that those two teams “have been bet to the over more than any team since June.”
That means three games against the top two most bet on teams.
The Commanders also draw the Rams, Texans, and Giants twice. Sharp said all three rank in the top seven of most bet on teams since June.
Put together, that creates a much tougher road than the one Washington was looking at earlier this offseason.
The Commanders were not the only club to see a notable shift. The Packers moved from the 17th-easiest schedule to the 24th-easiest, while the Cardinals, Dolphins, and Titans also saw their schedules get harder under this method.
Even with the changes in the NFC East, Washington was never likely to land on a soft schedule. Now it looks even more demanding.
The Commanders offered a small preview of what 2026 might look like on Friday, when they beat the Dolphins 20-7 in their preseason opener.
In Other News...
Commanders Suddenly Face A Quarterback Depth Problem To Watch
Marcus Mariotas preseason night against the Dolphins ended much sooner than Washington wanted, and not just because of the score. After connecting on a 22-yard pass, the veteran backup left the game with an apparent leg injury, forcing the Commanders to reshuffle their quarterback plans on the fly and lean on the other passers available behind center.
It is the kind of moment that can turn a routine August tune-up into a real concern, especially for a team trying to sort out its depth chart and keep a steady hand available if needed. The Commanders did not get an immediate update from Dan Quinn after the game, leaving Mariotas status and the broader quarterback picture hanging over what should have been a straightforward preseason outing. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Get Early Encouragement And One Immediate QB Concern
The Commanders opened the preseason with a 20-7 win over the Dolphins, and there were enough encouraging signs to go around before the night got complicated. Marcus Mariota started at quarterback for Washington, the defense picked off three passes, and running backs Robert Henry Jr. and Kaytron Allen each found the end zone as the team set an early tone on both sides of the ball.
Mariotas night ended early because of a leg injury, though Sam Hartman stepped in and helped guide scoring drives to keep Washington on track. In August, the results matter less than the health of the quarterback room, and that leaves the Commanders with one immediate concern to monitor even after a solid preseason opener. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Preseason Win Just Changed Two Key Roster Battles
Washingtons preseason win over Miami offered more than a clean final score, because plenty of the roster math around the Commanders got a little clearer. The running back group, in particular, got a useful jolt from the kind of game coaches love to see in August, with rookies and depth players getting real chances to separate themselves while the team sorted through its back end.
Robert Henry Jr. gave that battle some real shape with a strong all-around showing, and Kaytron Allen also helped himself with an efficient night. Elsewhere, the quarterback competition and the secondary both had moments that mattered, as Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis did not produce the same kind of impression and Malik Spencer and Quan Martin each came away with key plays, leaving Washington with a few roster questions still to settle. [Read more 🡒]