Thursday Night Football opens Week 10 with the NFC East sitting squarely in the spotlight, and the market has been leaning hard toward the New York Giants.
New York, first in the division at 5-2-1, meets the Washington Commanders at 2-5-1 in a game that could reshape the race. The teams already split the season’s first meeting with a tie in Week 5, a result that came after a massive overtime blunder by Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, who let the clock expire before getting a chance at a game-winning field goal.
That tie has already hurt Washington in the playoff picture, and another loss would put the Commanders in danger of losing the head-to-head tiebreaker to New York. The Giants opened as 1.5-point favorites on Sunday night and have since moved to 2.5-point favorites at home, with their moneyline also climbing to -142. A win would give New York a four-game lead over Washington in the division.
The total has also been moving downward. It sat at 41.5 earlier in the week and dropped to 40.5 by Wednesday, even though the first matchup between these teams produced 27 points apiece. Washington has gone over the total in four of its eight games, while the Giants have done it in five of eight.
New York’s position in the division is strong beyond just this matchup. Dallas sits at 4-5 as the only other team with more than two wins, and the Giants are 2-0-1 in three division games this season.
On Thursday, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan backed New York to handle business at home in his Road to 272 column:
I may have included the New York Giants in last week's edition of my Fraud Rankings, but my biggest issue with them has been their strength of schedule. Will I be betting on them when they take on teams like the Jaguars and 49ers in the coming weeks? Likely not, but they once again have a game against a bad team on Thursday Night Football when they face the Washington Commanders, and much like the majority of the season, I expect them to take care of business against an inferior opponent.
These two teams played to a tie in Week 5 earlier this season, but with it being a road game for the Giants and the fact that they had Jameis Winston at quarterback, I think we can admit they're in a better spot in the rematch. J.J.
McCarthy has been surprisingly solid to begin his tenure with the Giants, ranking fifth in the NFL in completion percentage over expected (+5.3%) amongst quarterbacks who have played 60+ snaps this season. It's also no coincidence that over the last three weeks, the Giants have led the league in net yards per play at +1.5.
Meanwhile, the Commanders continue to be a poorly coached team that doesn't thrive in any area, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in virtually every metric.
The betting split has also tilted toward New York. As of Thursday morning, DraftKings reported that 63 percent of the moneyline bets and 69 percent of the spread bets were on the Giants, while 65 percent of wagers had come in on the over. The line could still move before kickoff.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Dan Quinn Finally Addressed A Costly Commanders Problem
Late-game trouble has become a familiar and frustrating theme around the Commanders, and Dan Quinn finally acknowledged it after the recent loss to the Rams. With two first-year coordinators in David Blough on offense and Daronte Jones on defense, Quinn suggested there are bound to be some growing pains as the staff and roster continue to sort out how to finish games cleanly.
The ending against Los Angeles only sharpened the issue, with Jayden Daniels involved in a controversial play call that ended in a fumble and a loss. Daniels and Quinn both declined to go into much detail afterward, leaving the Commanders with the same lingering question they have been trying to answer all season: how to avoid letting games slip away in the final moments. [Read more 🡒]
Jayden Daniels Faces A Week 10 Test The Giants Just Complicated
Jayden Daniels is heading into another one of those early-season checkpoints that can say a lot about where a young quarterback and his team really stand. The Commanders have already seen what Daniels can do at the helm after his electric rookie year, when he pushed Washington all the way to the NFC championship game and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Now he is working through a new offensive coordinator and a different system, which makes every week feel a little more revealing than the last.
Week 10 adds another layer because it brings Daniels back across from J.J. McCarthy, another member of the 2024 rookie quarterback class who has taken a far different path. McCarthy missed his rookie season because of injury, then wound up with the Giants after losing the starting job in Minnesota, and he is now settling in as New York's starter following a midseason trade. Their second meeting as starters has the feel of a familiar matchup with a very different backdrop, and for Washington, the Giants have just made the test a little more complicated. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Face One Week 10 Decision That Could Swing Fantasy Lineups
The Week 10 matchup with the Giants has turned into a tricky fantasy puzzle for anyone building a DraftKings showdown lineup around Washington. Jayden Daniels remains the obvious centerpiece after his recent production and dual-threat upside, while the rest of the Commanders offense has to be sorted through a matchup that also puts New York playmakers like Malik Nabers on the radar. Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Chig Okonkwo, along with kickers Dominic Zvada and Drew Stevens, round out the pool of names that could matter in a one-game format where every touch and every field goal attempt can swing the slate.
Washingtons backfield adds another layer of uncertainty for fantasy managers trying to read the game script. The Commanders have settled into a two-man running back committee, which makes it harder to project volume and forces a closer look at how touches will be divided in a matchup that could stay tight. For a team still trying to balance efficiency with opportunity, that split could be the difference between a useful lineup play and a frustrating fade. [Read more 🡒]