The Washington Commanders’ defense doesn’t even get to the obvious passing-down fight before the damage starts. On first down alone, opposing offenses have posted a 49.7% success rate across 169 plays, according to HB Analytics, the worst mark in the NFL. That kind of early-down leakage has put defensive coordinator Daronte Jones in an ugly spot, and it was the sort of issue that should have been near the top of his bye-week checklist.
That first-down number is not the same thing as opponents moving the chains on nearly half those snaps. Success rate tracks whether a play helps the offense improve its scoring outlook.
A five-yard run on first-and-10 still leaves the offense in decent shape. Hold that same play to a yard, or force an incompletion, and the offense is suddenly working with a less favorable down and distance.
The encouraging part for Washington is that the defense has been much sturdier once it gets into second-and-long. Opponents have a 29.8% success rate on 57 second-and-long plays, the third-lowest rate in the league, and Washington also ranks second in expected points added allowed in those situations. That gives Jones a clear place to build from: if the defense can do a better job on first down, it can spend more of the game in the down-and-distance territory where it has actually played well.
The problem is that even when the Commanders force offenses into difficult third downs, they’re not consistently getting off the field. Opponents have converted 36 of 81 third downs against Washington, a 44.4% rate.
On third-and-long, HB Analytics has the Commanders allowing a 37.1% success rate over 35 plays, which ranks 24th. Those numbers matter because they show the defense still isn’t closing the door even when the situation should favor it.
Head coach Dan Quinn addressed that Tuesday when asked how he could help Jones get more consistent play from the defense. He pointed first to what happens before the snap and then shifted to the early downs.“
And that can mean urgency, call selection, and getting these guys' cleats in the grass to go play decisively and fast,” Quinn said. “So, that’s number one at the top of my list to make sure all the calls that we have are able to go and do that.”
Washington has time before it returns against Philadelphia on November 1 to settle on the calls it can execute cleanly and consistently. The starting point is clear: get everyone set, play faster, win more first downs, and create the second-and-long situations this defense has handled better. Then comes the harder part - finishing the possession.
In Other News...
Commanders Fans Have A Growing Reason To Doubt Adam Peters
The early returns on Adam Peters first major roster-building swings have not given Commanders fans much comfort. Washington entered the 2024 season with plenty of hope that a fresh front office would sharpen the draft and stabilize a roster that has needed help in several places, but the teams uneven play has kept the spotlight on the general managers choices, especially the way he has tried to patch together the running back room.
That concern only grows when so many of the 2024 draft additions have yet to leave a clear mark. The Commanders needed immediate help from that class, particularly on Day 2, and instead they are still waiting for those picks to deliver the kind of impact that can change the shape of a season. Until that happens, every shaky week on offense or in the backfield is going to feed the same question: how long does Washington need to wait before Peters plan starts paying off? [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Suddenly Have A Bigger Jacory Croskey-Merritt Question Than Expected
Jacory Croskey-Merritt went from seventh-round draft pick to one of the more encouraging young players on Washingtons roster almost immediately, playing in every game as a rookie and starting seven while piling up more than 800 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Even with the Commanders offense dealing with line issues and a thinner backfield after Kaytron Allen was released, Croskey-Merritt looked like someone who had at least given the team a legitimate building block at running back.
This season has been a much different story, with his production slipping and Washington now having to navigate the position without him in the lineup. Bleacher Reports recent ranking of the 2025 running back class only adds to the bigger-picture concern for the Commanders, because the question is no longer just whether Croskey-Merritt can rediscover his rookie form, but where he really stacks up against the rest of that draft class moving forward. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Still Have A Few Young Reasons For Hope
A rough 1-4-1 start has left the Commanders searching for traction early in the 2026 season, but there are at least a few young names giving the roster something to build around. Jayden Daniels has kept competing through injuries and a handful of mistakes, Antonio Williams has flashed as a receiver, and Amik Robertson has offered a steadier presence in the secondary than Washington has often found while trying to piece things together.
Sonny Styles has also emerged as one of the more encouraging developments on the defense, doing the kind of work that shows up all over the field even when the teams results do not. Add in KLavon Chaissons pressure off the edge, and the Commanders can at least point to a handful of players who have made a difficult opening stretch feel a little less bleak, even if the bigger turnaround is still waiting to happen. [Read more 🡒]