The NFC East looks like a two-team race on paper, and the numbers make that pretty clear. Philadelphia sits at the top with +120 odds at DraftKings, good for a 45 percent implied probability, while Dallas is next at +205 and 32 percent. Washington trails at +500, which works out to around 16 percent, just ahead of the Giants at +600 and 14 percent.
That lines up closely with the projections. My model has the Eagles winning 10.4 games, the Cowboys at 9.2, the Commanders at 7.6 and the Giants at 7.1.
Philadelphia also leads the group in playoff odds at 63.0 percent and division odds at 44.5 percent, with Dallas at 48.5 percent to reach the postseason and 29.4 percent to win the East. Washington checks in at 28.9 percent for the playoffs and 14.9 percent for the division, while New York sits at 22.7 percent and 11.2 percent.
The big reason Washington is slipping back from last year’s breakout is the combination of health, line play and schedule difficulty. Jayden Daniels’ Offensive Rookie of the Year season powered the Commanders to 12 wins and the NFC Championship Game, the franchise’s best year since its last Super Bowl title to finish the 1991 season. But an elbow injury and natural regression brought that run to a halt, and now the path looks a lot steeper.
There are already real concerns up front. Laremy Tunsil went down with a torn triceps a few weeks ago, and camp chatter has Daniels running for his life.
Nicki Jhabvala, who covers the Commanders for The Athletic, called the offensive line “inoperable” after the team’s joint practice with the Baltimore Ravens. That’s a rough report for a quarterback coming off a season in which he couldn’t stay healthy.
The schedule doesn’t do Washington any favors either. My model has the Commanders facing the third-toughest slate, compared with the Cowboys at eighth and the Eagles at 20th. The early stretch is especially unforgiving, with road trips to Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco, plus home games against the Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, Giants, Eagles and Los Angeles Rams through the first eight weeks.
Because of that, I’m not sure Washington is still in the playoff picture by Week 10. An offensive line that’s struggling, an average at best defense and one of the league’s toughest schedules adds up to a 7-8 win profile.
Dallas and Philadelphia have a much cleaner case. The Cowboys have an elite offense, and the Eagles should have an elite defense. Those kinds of units can carry a team to 9-10 wins, and maybe more.
Washington still has a path if things break right. The Eagles and Cowboys combine to win the division about 75 percent of the time, while the Commanders are at 15 percent.
This is the NFL, so nothing is locked in. But unless the offensive line improves, it’s hard to get excited about the Commanders’ chances.
In Other News...
Commanders Suddenly Have A Familiar Offensive Line Gamble To Consider
Injuries and thin depth are already forcing the Commanders to keep a close eye on their offensive line, and a familiar name just hit the market at exactly the wrong time for the rest of the NFC East. The Giants released Evan Neal, the former top-10 pick whose career has been slowed by injuries and position changes, and that kind of move always gets attention in Washington when the trenches start looking shaky.
Evan Neal is hardly a clean solution, but the Commanders have taken this sort of swing before, and there is at least a recent template for why they might do it again. A low-cost depth add with starting experience can look a lot more appealing when the alternatives are moving pieces around and hoping the line holds together, which is what makes this possibility worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Face An Urgent Center Decision Before Week 1
The Commanders have already gotten their roster down to 53 players, but the work in the middle of the offensive line is far from settled. Center has become a spot worth watching as injuries and recent releases have left Washington looking for stability before Week 1, and that uncertainty has pushed the team to keep scanning the waiver wire for help.
Kingsley Eguakun is one name worth tracking after his release from the Cleveland Browns, especially with his past connection to Washington offensive line coach Darnell Stapleton. For a team trying to steady the front before the season opens, adding a center with some familiarity in the building would make sense, but the next move still has to be made. [Read more 🡒]
Commanders Suddenly Have A Cornerback Problem They Cant Ignore
Washington finalized its initial 53-man roster, but the numbers at cornerback already look a little thin. After a series of cuts and the move of Trey Amos to injured reserve, the Commanders are sitting with only three cornerbacks on the roster, a shape that does not leave much margin for a position that can get stressed quickly over the course of a season.
There is some roster maneuvering still to come, with veteran defensive tackle Shy Tuttle cut in a move that is expected to be temporary once Washington creates more space by placing Laremy Tunsil and Jer'Zhan Newton on injured reserve. Even with those transactions in motion, the cornerback room remains a spot to watch, and the Commanders may need to add help there before the opener if they want to feel comfortable about their depth. [Read more 🡒]