Wake Forest’s 77-0 rout of Merrimack gave the scoreboard a chance to breathe, but the bigger picture now is what the numbers say about the Demon Deacons with three games left.
The Deacs are sitting in a strong spot across the major rankings. They moved up to No. 11 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, and the second round of the College Football Playoff Rankings is set to come out Tuesday around 9 p.m. Whether Wake gets a bump there remains to be seen.
The analytics, though, paint a team that keeps showing up near the top of the sport. ESPN’s Football Power Index has Wake at No. 13, even after the blowout win over Merrimack.
The Deacs slipped two spots anyway, while CFP contenders Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Oregon are all ranked ahead of them. Wake is still positioned above teams like Texas Tech, BYU, USC, Iowa, and others.
There’s also a real path in the playoff odds. Wake currently has a 52.9% chance of making the CFP, a number that sits ahead of several contenders, including Ohio State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas Tech, BYU, and Oregon.
The Deacs’ odds of winning the conference are 20.5%, while their chances to win out are 11.5%. Miami’s odds of winning out are 60.6%, which is third best.
One of the cleaner indicators of how Wake has handled its schedule is Strength of Record. That metric, which estimates the chance an average Top 25 team would have the same record or better against the same slate, has Wake at 10th nationally. The Deacs are right behind Texas, Indiana, and Notre Dame, and just ahead of Ole Miss, Tennessee, BYU, Oregon, Texas Tech, and Ohio State.
PFF has also been high on Wake, and the Deacs’ recent run of lopsided wins helps explain why. They are ranked fifth nationally by PFF, ahead of Miami at No.
- Their passing game grade is fourth in the country, and their run game sits eighth.
That ground attack has picked up steam lately with Ty Clark III, Duece Lawrence, and Jamar Searcy all turning in productive carries. Gio Lopez has added another layer to it with his playmaking as a runner.
Defensively, Wake has also stacked up well in the numbers. The Deacs are fourth nationally against the run and fourth in coverage, two marks that reflect how well they’ve handled opponents on both fronts. That said, the competition is about to get tougher, and that defense will be tested more heavily in the weeks ahead.
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Memorial Gymnasium should provide a revealing backdrop for a game that will say plenty about how far each team has come in November, especially with the SEC Network+ stream making it easy to keep tabs on. For Memphis, another win over a ranked-caliber opponent would add more weight to that Iowa State result, while Vanderbilt gets a chance to show its early defensive numbers can travel against a team that has already handled pressure situations. [Read more 🡒]
Wake Forest Already Has An Early Problem Steve Forbes Must Fix
Rebounding has already become a talking point for Steve Forbes and his Wake Forest team as it heads into a matchup with Charleston Southern. After the first couple of games, Forbes made it clear that controlling the glass is a priority, especially for a program that has dealt with rebounding issues in recent seasons and knows how much second-chance chances can swing an early November game.
Charleston Southern brings its own concerns on the boards into the meeting, even after a recent win, with coach Saah Nimley acknowledging the issue on his side as well. For Wake Forest, the assignment is straightforward enough: show more physicality, clean up possessions and start turning rebounding from an early-season problem into a strength before it lingers any longer. [Read more 🡒]