Oregon’s win over Ohio State changed the conversation, but CBS Sports still isn’t sending the Ducks to the College Football Playoff.
Brad Crawford’s latest postseason projection has No. 23 Oregon finishing just outside the 12-team field and landing in the Holiday Bowl against Wake Forest instead.
The Ducks are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten after their 41-28 road win against the No. 12 Buckeyes, but Crawford sees the path to a playoff spot as too tight to hold together.
Oregon’s route would require a lot to break right over the final stretch. The Ducks need to win their last three games against Michigan, Michigan State, and Washington, while UCLA would have to keep its undefeated run going and USC would need to hand Indiana its second loss of the regular season. Even then, the road to the Big Ten title game or an at-large CFP bid remains shaky.
Crawford’s bracket has Wake Forest at 8-1 overall and 5-1 in the ACC, with the Demon Deacons falling to No. 1 Miami in the ACC Championship and missing the playoff as well.
In his projection, the 12-team field includes No. 12 Boise State against No.
5 Notre Dame, No. 6 Alabama against No.
11 BYU, No. 7 UCLA against No.
10 Kentucky, and No. 9 Tennesee against No.
8 Texas. The byes go to No.
1 Georgia, No. 2 Utah, No.
4 Indiana, and No. 3 Miami.
Even while leaving Oregon out of the playoff picture, Crawford pointed to what the Ducks just did in Columbus. “Dan Lanning's Ducks could be the highest-ranked three-loss team in the updated CFP top 25 next week after dismantling Ohio State in Columbus. Slotted No. 23 entering the weekend, Oregon scored 38 straight points after trailing by two touchdowns early and embarrassed the Buckeyes on the road for its second ranked win of the season (USC),” Crawford wrote.
If the Holiday Bowl prediction holds, Wake Forest would bring a passing game that just lit up Merrimack in a 77-0 win. Quarterback Steele Pizzella made his first career start and threw for 432 yards, completing 23 of 28 passes with three touchdowns. He also ran for a touchdown and added 63 rushing yards, while connecting with eight different targets.
Oregon has been in the Holiday Bowl before, including during Dan Lanning’s inaugural 2022 season, when the Ducks beat North Carolina 28-27 in a comeback win. The program is 3-1 in the bowl overall, with a 35-30 win over Texas in 2000, a 17-14 loss to Oklahoma in 2005, and a 42-31 win over Oklahoma State in 2008.
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